July 9, 2008

The State of the Race

By Richard Baehr
Part OneIn the month since the end of the Democratic nominating contest, the Presidential race has settled into a fairly narrow band in Obama-McCain polling results.  The two daily tracking polls, Gallup and Rasmussen, have consistently shown an Obama lead.  The Rasmussen results have been more stable , with the Obama bounce moving as high as a 7 point lead after the last primary and Hillary Clinton's departure from the race, and never less than 3.  Gallup has shown a lead for Obama of as much as 7, and a few days when the race was tied.  On Tuesday, Rasmussen had Obama with a 6 point lead, and Gallup showed a 2 point Obama edge (within the margin of error of the survey). The three most recent national polling results (CNN, Democracy Corps, a Democratic polling outfit, and Time) all showed 4 or 5 point Obama leads. The average of the two daily tracking  polls and the 3 latest national polls gives Obama a 4.2% lead. In essence, there is a lot of confirmation of...(Read Full Article)