December 7, 2007

The Iran NIE: A Template of Analysis?

By Brett McCrae
After reading the Iran NIE and many of the related articles, there are a few fundamental issues that have not been raised. Let's begin with the "money quote" used by the New York Times to indicate that Iran has stopped pursuing its nuclear ambitions. The NIE states:"Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs....."What I find interesting about this caption is that, 40 years ago, the same sentiments and analysis were used by State Department officials covering nuclear issues. Given the departmental background of those who led the Iranian NIE effort, it is prudent to bring similar works by the US State Department to light.In declassified reports dating from 1966 to 1974, the US State Department was involved in trying to influence India's nuclear program to...(Read Full Article)