PrintOctober 18, 2006
Election Forecast: Three Weeks Out
In the past two weeks, since the emergence of the Mark Foley affair, every political analyst has raised his forecast of likely Democratic gains in the House, and most are forecasting a Democratic takeover, requiring at least a 15 seat pickup. Yesterday, Jay Cost wrote an article for Real Clear Politics that attempted to assign some probability assessments alongside each major forecaster's range of outcomes. Cost did not attempt to analyze individual races.
In a September 5th article, six weeks back, I tried to compare how 5 major political analysts viewed the most competitive House races. At that time, the analysts were suggesting that the Democrats would pick up between 12 and 20 seats. Today, the range is 18 to 27. Chris Bowers provides a range of 19—27 , after allowing for 1 or 2 GOP pick—ups. Stuart Rothenberg has a range of 18—25 seats. Larry Sabato has a range of 18—22 seats . Charles Cook says a pickup of 30 is more likely than a pickup...(Read Full Article)
