The 2006 Prospects for Capitol Hill Control

Several months back, many political pundits were arguing that the Democrats had a real chance of winning control of the Senate in the 2006 elections. There were fewer stories about the battle for control of the House. This is not surprising since it is a lot harder to focus on 435 House races than 33 Senate races. In addition, campaigns for the Senate, given their  high cost, begin earlier, so potential challengers are often known a year before the general election. In House races, many challengers need to be recruited by their party (given the recent very low success rate in ousting incumbents) and still have to win party primaries to get to run, and some incumbents announce their intention to retire just months before the election. Today, nobody is suggesting that the Democrats will gain control of the Senate. But there is a lot of excitement in the political press about Democrats having real shot at winning a majority in the House. Given that the House is a...(Read Full Article)