The Red Sox Effect

The Butterfly Effect is a well—known anecdote that describes how presumably insignificant occurrences can have a profound influence on seemingly unrelated events. As it's told, a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world can set off a chain reaction that results in a cataclysmic weather episode thousands of miles away. This year's Presidential election produced such unexpected results that they can only be explained by the confluence of unanticipated, random factors. Consider how the contest was supposed to go, given all the traditional indicators: — Bush's job approval in the last days prior to the election, by all counts, hovered in the 47—49% range, which, according to conventional political wisdom, should have represented the upper percentage of the popular vote that the President would receive. — The stock market was almost 4% lower on Election Day than it was at the beginning of the year, which almost always signals defeat for the...(Read Full Article)