July 8, 2004

A big whoop?

By Richard Baehr
The Baehr Essentials Last week, Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd emailed Bush supporters that they should expect to see a 15 point bounce for John Kerry in the next month. This bounce would be consistent with those for candidates in previous campaigns, Dowd said, and would be the product of the selection of a Vice Presidential nominee and the positive publicity from the Democratic Party's national convention. The instant polls are now out, at least for the VP selection. In a CBS poll, the Kerry ticket has picked up 4 points from last week's survey. Scott Rasmussen shows the Kerry ticket one point further behind than it was yesterday (a third of the Rasmussen poll consists of voter interviews occurring after the Edwards selection). Several surveys indicate more people approve than disapprove of John Edwards and his selection by John Kerry.  Perhaps most importantly, in the Iowa Presidential futures market, Kerry has pulled very slightly ahead of Bush. Dowd, in previous...(Read Full Article)