Obama camp may be freaking out today

Richard Baehr
New swing state polls are out today from Rasmussen and We Ask America,  all taken yesterday after the first Presidential debate. In Rasmusssen surveys, Romney is up 1

in Virginia (he had been down 1) , up 2 in Floria (he has been down 2) and down 1 in Ohio (same as before)

We Ask America has Romney up 3 in Virginia (last survey had Obama up 3),  up 1 in Ohio (first survey in this cycle for the state), and up 3 in Florida (last survey had Obama up 3).    

The average of the surveys from the two polls in each of the three most critical swing states puts Romney up 2 in Virginia, up 2.5% in Florida, and even in  Ohio. 

A new Gravis poll has Obama up 1 in Nevada, another swing state.

We Ask America also has a new poll in  Illinois 10, the most Democratic district now represented by a Republican in Congress (Obama won by well over 20% last time).  Freshman GOP Rep. Bob Dold is up 2% and amazingly, Obama, too, is only up 2% in a district he won by 23% in 2008.  This is a heavily Jewish district, so maybe there is evidence of some blowback over Israel policy.  

Of course Nate Silver's model will probably absorb all this, and since lately it seems to work like the model that produces the monthly unemployment rate, will conclude that Obama's chances to win have gone up from 88% to 90%.

Correction: Obama vote corrected to 2008

New swing state polls are out today from Rasmussen and We Ask America,  all taken yesterday after the first Presidential debate. In Rasmusssen surveys, Romney is up 1

in Virginia (he had been down 1) , up 2 in Floria (he has been down 2) and down 1 in Ohio (same as before)

We Ask America has Romney up 3 in Virginia (last survey had Obama up 3),  up 1 in Ohio (first survey in this cycle for the state), and up 3 in Florida (last survey had Obama up 3).    

The average of the surveys from the two polls in each of the three most critical swing states puts Romney up 2 in Virginia, up 2.5% in Florida, and even in  Ohio. 

A new Gravis poll has Obama up 1 in Nevada, another swing state.

We Ask America also has a new poll in  Illinois 10, the most Democratic district now represented by a Republican in Congress (Obama won by well over 20% last time).  Freshman GOP Rep. Bob Dold is up 2% and amazingly, Obama, too, is only up 2% in a district he won by 23% in 2008.  This is a heavily Jewish district, so maybe there is evidence of some blowback over Israel policy.  

Of course Nate Silver's model will probably absorb all this, and since lately it seems to work like the model that produces the monthly unemployment rate, will conclude that Obama's chances to win have gone up from 88% to 90%.

Correction: Obama vote corrected to 2008