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June 1, 2010
Iran has enough fuel to make two bombs: IAEA
As usual, this information comes with a couple of caveats: 1) Iran could find a way to surreptitiously enhance their stockpile from a 20% level of enrichment to the bomb grade 90%; and 2) they have a workable design for a bomb.
The second caveat is less uncertain; it is easy to assume that the Pakistani black marketeer A.Q. Khan sold Iran the same design he sold the NoKo's. But in order for Iran to bump enrichment to bomb grade levels, they would have to kick the UN inspectors out.
Unless the Iranians have more secret facilities in which case, all bets are off and they may have a bomb or two already.
But when even the milquetoast UN agency in charge of keeping an eye on Iran acknowledges the uncertainty over the Iranian program, you know that we're probably close to welcoming another nuclear power into the most exclusive club in the world:
The New York Times:
The report, by the International Atomic Energy Agency, a branch of the United Nations, appears likely to bolster the Obama administration's case for a fourth round of economic sanctions against Iran and further diminish its interest in a deal, recently revived by Turkey and Brazil, in which Iran would send a portion of its nuclear stockpile out of the country.
When Iran tentatively agreed eight months ago to ship some of its nuclear material out of the country, the White House said the deal would temporarily deprive Iran of enough fuel to make even a single weapon.
But Iran delayed for months, and the figures contained in the inspectors' report on Monday indicated that even if Iran now shipped the agreed-upon amount of nuclear material out of the country, it would retain enough for a single weapon, undercutting the American rationale for the deal.
The toughly worded report says that Iran has expanded work at one of its nuclear sites. It also describes, step by step, how inspectors have been denied access to a series of facilities, and how Iran has refused to answer inspectors' questions on a variety of activities, including what the agency called the "possible existence" of "activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."
The long term denial of Iranian intentions on the part of leftists in our government as well as those around the world who have enabled the Iranians these many years is what is directly responsible for this current state of affairs. All of this subterfuge described by the IAEA - the constant violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty that requires unfettered inspections - can lead rational people to only one conclusion: Iran is building a nuclear weapon in violation of agreements it has signed as well as despite it's vociferous denials over the years.
Sanctions? Anything approaching serious sanctions will never be agreed upon at the UN. The "4th round" of sanctions is a joke. All they will do is give the appearance that the nations of the world are trying to do something about the Iranian program. In other words; political cover.
Meanwhile, in Israel, that clock on the wall in Prime Minister Netanyahu's office is ticking relentlessly toward midnight and a decision on what Israel will do - if anything - about a nuclear Iran. At this point, nobody knows the minds of the prime minister or his advisors.
I suspect that before the summer is over, we will.