Is Obama pulling 'The Big Fade?'

The new Newsweek poll that came out yesterday showed Obama's numbers dropping like a stone.

This is just the latest in a series of surveys which show that despite factors that would ordinarily make this a Democratic year, Barack Obama cannot shake his challenger John McCain. The Newsweek numbers are a surprise. Last month, Obama topped McCain by double digits. This month, the two candidates are virtually tied within the margin for error at 44-41 for Obama.

Both daily tracking polls - Gallup and Rasmussen - continue to show a tight race with Obama up 4 and 2 points respectively in those surveys.

Beyond the raw numbers is the realization that the man with all the advantages in the race cannot top 50%. Not only is that number a psychological barrier it is also indicative of raw strength. Obama doesn't have it. And as long as McCain can hold Obama under that magic number, the perception will grow that Obama could very well lose to the Republican challenger.

Would this change the convention dynamics? Not likely. Obama's delegates will not bolt their candidate and the Superdelegates - who could switch allegiances to Hillary or some other candidate - don't appear to be in a mood yet to revolt against the party standard bearer.

This leaves the Democrats a nervous bunch. Until Obama starts showing better in the face of all these advantages for the Democrats, the danger will exist that by the time the convention rolls around, the party may have found it bought itself a pig in a poke.

The new Newsweek poll that came out yesterday showed Obama's numbers dropping like a stone.

This is just the latest in a series of surveys which show that despite factors that would ordinarily make this a Democratic year, Barack Obama cannot shake his challenger John McCain. The Newsweek numbers are a surprise. Last month, Obama topped McCain by double digits. This month, the two candidates are virtually tied within the margin for error at 44-41 for Obama.

Both daily tracking polls - Gallup and Rasmussen - continue to show a tight race with Obama up 4 and 2 points respectively in those surveys.

Beyond the raw numbers is the realization that the man with all the advantages in the race cannot top 50%. Not only is that number a psychological barrier it is also indicative of raw strength. Obama doesn't have it. And as long as McCain can hold Obama under that magic number, the perception will grow that Obama could very well lose to the Republican challenger.

Would this change the convention dynamics? Not likely. Obama's delegates will not bolt their candidate and the Superdelegates - who could switch allegiances to Hillary or some other candidate - don't appear to be in a mood yet to revolt against the party standard bearer.

This leaves the Democrats a nervous bunch. Until Obama starts showing better in the face of all these advantages for the Democrats, the danger will exist that by the time the convention rolls around, the party may have found it bought itself a pig in a poke.