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April 03, 2008

Is the Writing on the Wall for Hillary?

Rick Moran
New polls out for the Pennsylvania primary are nothing but bad news for Hillary Clinton.

At one point last month, Clinton enjoyed a 19 point lead in some polls. But a survey out yesterday from Public Policy Polling reveals the fact that the writing may be on the wall for the Clinton campaign as Democrats appear ready to coalesce around the Illinois senator:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is surging in Pennsylvania, according to several new polls. In one survey, released by Public Policy Polling this morning,

Obama is now leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the first time, 45 percent to 43 percent. That represents a closing of a 26-percentage-point Clinton advantage from only two and a half weeks ago.

The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary is scheduled for April 22.

Obama’s gains are largely due to a narrowing of the gap with white voters—29-percentage points according to PPP—but he continues to trail Clinton 49 to 38 percent among whites. In mid-March, according to PPP, Clinton led 63 percent to 23 percent among whites.

That mid-March poll occurred prior to Obama’s race speech, at the height of the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Rasmussen's numbers from April 1 show Clinton's lead dropping significantly. to 47-42. And Survey USA has Obama eating in to Clinton's huge lead.

It appears that rather than getting the landslide win she needs in order to convince superdelegates that she rather than Obama can take traditionally Democratic states, Clinton will be in a fight for her political life in Pennsylvania.

One by one, a trickle of superdelegates has been moving Obama's way the last two weeks. Significant endorsements from former candidate Bill Richardson and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey have generated some momentum for Obama, leading to the feeling that he may well be inevitable.

Those who count Clinton out, however - me included - have been burned in the past. But she is running out of time to make her case and the rest of the party appears ready to give the nod to Obama.

Posted at 09:02 AM | Email | | Share Share
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