Is Muqtada al-Sadr Giving Up?

Sadr, who led uprisings against U.S. troops in 2004 and whose militia were later described by U.S. commanders as their greatest threat, surprised both Iraqis and U.S. forces when he ordered the initial six-month freeze on his militia in August.

Washington says the freeze is one of the factors that has led to a decline in violence across Iraq, although it has continued to pursue what it describes as "rogue" Mehdi Army units that have not laid down arms.

The son of a revered Shi'ite cleric slain under Saddam Hussein, Sadr has wide influence in the Shi'ite south and parts of Baghdad although he does not himself hold high clerical rank.

He has recently begun taking advanced Islamic studies in the religious learning centre of Najaf in a bid to climb the ranks of the Shi'ite religious hierarchy and increase his influence whilst also earning more respect from religious elders.

Although his political activity has been difficult to predict, those close to him suggest he is happy with the results of his ceasefire and may even seek to make it permanent, while emphasizing his organization's social role over its armed wing.