This morning, I performed a quick exercise asking ChatGPT to project EV share of U.S. light vehicle sales over the next decade. Here’s the S-curve (logistic) fit applied to the observed EV-share data.

It is not a bad guess and saved me $100,000 by not having to hire a McKinsey consultant, like Pete Buttigieg. It also would be my guess considering:

• the end of EV subsidies is in sight, 
• the Endangerment Finding that would have mandated car manufacturers to shift production toward EVs is being rescinded, 
• the percentage of the population that can afford the luxury of driving an EV is limited.

Notice that I did not limit it to the mass of people who want to flaunt their green credentials. If that were the case, sales would plateau at 50% instead of 30% of the market. However, they are constrained by the fact that not all have: 

• a garage that could hold an EV charger, 
• a second real car as backup for those times they want to drive to the Berkshires for their yoga retreat, 
• a $300,000+ income as some overpriced consultant so they could afford to squander an extra $60,000 on a car.

How is the cottage industry of green boosters taking the news? It is probably not going over well with them, but for now they are keeping a brave face hoping that the clock will be turned back to the Biden years. However, I don’t think that will happen because once something becomes as openly derided as the environmental movement is now, it’s very hard for them to recapture the moral high ground.

Image generated by ChatGPT.