Hard as it is to believe, could change really be in the works for California?

It may be, according to this Emerson poll, as reported by Newsweek:

Republican candidate Steve Hilton is very narrowly ahead in the latest poll from Emerson College on California's gubernatorial race, pulling into the lead over former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, the Democratic front-runner.

According to the details:

The latest Emerson poll, conducted on October 20 and October 21, shows Hilton with a slim lead in the crowded field to replace outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom in California next year. The Republican has the support of 16 percent of California's likely voters, whereas Porter is backed by 15 percent.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, comes in third at 11 percent. Former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, both tied for fourth at 5 percent. Several other contenders polled lower, in the single digits.

The poll included 900 likely California voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 po

California's primary will be held on June 2, with the top two vote getters to face off in the general election, which will be held on Nov. 3, 2026. Lots can happen, of course, in the meantime, but this is an auspicious start.

Why might it be happening?

Well, against Porter, a sour old leftist, Hilton comes off as sunny and can-do. He's got an unexpected English accent, which tends to be a plus in California. Disposition, or charisma, as AT contributor Selwyn Duke noted, commenting on New York's mayoral race, tends to be determinative in the outcomes of election. 

But he's more than that. Like socialist frontrunner Zohran Mamdani in New York, he's got his fingers on the pulse of what's bothering voters, in this case, in one-party blue California, beset by chaos and incompetence, and he projects a gritty Reagan-like determination to get those problem fixed.

This retweet is illustrative:

He's also zeroed in on the real problem in California, whose name is Gavin Newsom, with this hard-hitting ad:

Best of all, his opponent, Porter, is hideous. She has no charisma whatsoever; says she despises the Republican vote and doesn't need it to win; has no better plan than same-old-same-old like she's some cog in the blue machine; has a crapulent personality, given to blow-ups, violence and an inability to take tough questions from the press; and probably not inconsequentially in California, is repulsive to look at.

Those are quite a few hurdles, and as Hilton has noted, her polling numbers plunged and his rose when news got out about her blow-up at a reporter for pressing her on an uncomfortable issue, her screaming at a staffer on camera to 'get out of my shot' as if the staffer might have been too pretty (as almost anyone is) next to her, inviting unfavorable comparisons, and the report in the New York Post about her hurling a pot of mashed-potatoes at her ex-husband, unable to control herself in any basic way.

Someone like that is bound to repel voters and Hilton's rise is evidence the revelations disgusted the voters.

What's more, Hilton seems to have a pretty solid political machine going -- I've seen Hilton lawn signs in my light-blue, thin-margin Democrat neighborhood in San Diego.

Note that Porter, who is at the top in a crowded field, is sandwiched in by another Republican in the third-place slot. If Hilton and fellow Republican Chad Bianco could team up and consolidate forces, while disgruntled Democrats stay home, there could be a winner's path.

Stranger things have happened. And it's worth noting that Emerson leans a little left in the polling world.

Let's hope that Hilton keeps the momentum up and as he lays out the issues and projects the Reaganese sunny optimism, shriveling Porter's vote total and leave the Democrats in the dust. He's the antidote to Katie Porter and voters know it. This poll is a hopeful sign he can win.

Image: X screen shot