Americans have been told that post-2020 Biden-era federal investigations were “narrowly targeted” to uncover crimes committed by the Trump campaign.  However, the newly released FBI case file published by House Judiciary Republicans suggests otherwise. Covering the period from October 2020 through late August 2022, it portrays a sweeping, politically motivated, movement-wide investigation into MAGA, predicated on the legal equivalent of quicksand.

This case file is part of an investigation run by Special Counsel Jack Smith called “Arctic Frost,” which began in November 2022.  Arctic Frost became the umbrella code name for the entire operation and was the basis for Smith’s failed electors case against President Trump.  Notably, a recent demand letter from Sen. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to subpoena Smith indicates that Smith’s lead prosecutors invoked the Fifth Amendment.  This suggests they (Thomas Windom, Jay Bratt, and J.P. Cooney) knew that the FBI may have committed crimes.

Sen. Chuck Grassley’s investigation shows that FBI agent Timothy Thibault, who allegedly despised Trump, opened Arctic Frost in April 2022.  FBI director Kash Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi had been reviewing the Arctic Frost files for months before Grassley made them public.  Grassley also released a document asserting that A.G. Merrick Garland, deputy attorney general Lisa Monaco, and FBI director Christopher Wray “personally approved opening Arctic Frost.”  As noted in Grassley’s March 2025 release, Arctic Frost is a variety of orange, “a dig at Mr. Trump’s complexion.”  Prosecutors sought to pull MAGA out by the roots.

The file itself describes a pre-election, “low-confidence” analytic dive into Trump’s campaign finances.  Powerful, taxpayer-funded government tools were trained on a major-party campaign before and after Election Day.  Paired with the Arctic Frost investigation documents, it reads as a politically charged operation that weaponized government resources to insinuate criminal wrongdoing to tilt the field, long before any charges were filed.  The playbook echoes the Russiagate investigation, which also proved to be a conspiratorial lie based on flimsy evidence.

Many around Trump were targeted — Jeffrey Clark, then acting assistant attorney general, among the most frequently.  His alleged offense?  Drafting a letter urging states to “evaluate irregularities in the 2020 election,” according to the case file.

On October 21, 2020, the FBI’s Washington Field Office (WFO) issued a “Tactical Intelligence Report” (location: FBI-HJC119-AF-000075 of case file) that opens with a Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) warning: SAR-based material carries “unsubstantiated allegations of possible criminal activity, akin to confidential informant tips.”  That framing signals that the WFO knew that the SAR-based analysis had limited probative value.

Page one of the report is pictured below:

The same WFO memo again makes “low confidence” assessments about the Trump campaign’s vendor, American Made Media Consultants (AMMC), relying on FEC filings, other agency financials, FBI records, and open sources.  “Low confidence” means that information is fragmented or poorly corroborated and that “analytical judgments should be considered preliminary in nature.”  Despite those caveats, the memo recommended investigatory steps — including casino and bank queries — “to support the opening of a predicated investigation into federal election crimes.” 

After the election, the investigation expanded into a massive people-mapping operation that swept up state party leaders, alternate electors, campaign aides, congressmen, and J6 rally organizers — using sensitive government tools.  DOJ and the FBI used FD-759 requests to covertly record interviews.  Pages of spreadsheets tracked privilege, subpoenas, and grand-jury posture.

Grassley opened his oversight inquiry into Arctic Frost on July 18, 2022.  He exposed the existence of a Prohibited Access file (released June 5, 2025), which stated that the “FBI uses to restrict access to certain documents,” and on Oct. 29, he released details showing more than 400 subpoenas tied to special counsel activity.  Smith’s subpoenas sought communications involving media companies, members and staff of Congress, White House advisers (e.g., Stephen Miller, Dan Scavino), donor analytics, and broad financial data for hundreds of conservative individuals and entities, including Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA.  The Oct. 29 press release stated,

The subpoenas, which were provided to Grassley through legally protected whistleblower disclosures, were sent to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. These 197 subpoenas requested testimony, communications and records related to at least 430 named Republican individuals and entities[.]

The Oct. 29 release also showed

• communications with media companies such as CBS, Fox News, Fox Business, Newsmax, Sinclair, and others.
• communications with “any member, employee or agent of the Legislative Branch of the U.S. Government.”
• statistical data and analysis relating to donors and fundraising efforts.
• broad financial data relating to conservative individuals and entities.

A Jan. 23, 2023, “Arctic Frost bank records subpoenas” document shows that agents had completed roughly

• 150 interviews (with 50+ more planned within 60 days).
•  400+ subpoenas (about 300 for witness testimony/records, ~200 data “selectors,” and ~20 financial subpoenas).
• and conducted search activity covering 10 phones (including phones from five attorneys, one U.S. congressman, and two White House staff), plus 20 other electronic devices, seven iCloud accounts, 28 email accounts, and one Twitter account — the former president’s.

Arctic Frost Investigators also requested approximately $16,000 in travel for interviews.  The document also notes upcoming “interviews of former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, former Acting AG Jeff Rosen, and former AG Bill Barr.”  Notably, the FBI’s J6 roundup also touched all 56 field offices during this period.

Arctic Frost shifted from chasing leads to chasing rosters in spreadsheets, naming all elector slates from seven swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NM, PA, WI) in a consolidated case record.  The consolidated format shows deliberate scope targeting a political group, not a few discrete suspects.

Agents also built a Subpoena/Counsel Matrix, tracking USAO contacts, productions, executive privilege, attorney-client work product, act-of-production issues, motions, interviews, and grand jury — a workflow for managing dozens of political actors’ legal positions.  A separate “role” spreadsheet folded in White House counsel Pat Cipollone, various state officials, and rally figures such as Ali Alexander (marked a “Prominent ‘Stop the Steal’ organizer”).

The spreadsheet is pictured below.

Investigative methods escalated to alleged surreptitious recordings of various individuals.  Two artifacts demonstrate the use of surveillance tradecraft:

• In May 2022, agents targeted Pennsylvania GOP chair Lawrence Tabas at his home, memorializing a “voluntary, non-custodial” 44-minute session in an FD-302; they secretly recorded the interview on two covert devices and uploaded audio to ELSUR (electronic surveillance) as evidence.
• FD-759 requests to covertly record interviews appear beginning August 24, 2022.  The Bureau’s synopsis claims a conspiracy to obstruct Congress by submitting “fraudulent certificates of electors’ votes” — “submitted at the direction of members of the Donald J. Trump for President Campaign” — tying the same circle to efforts to overturn the election and to the January 6 protest (including a specific request regarding Cindy Chafian).

Cleta Mitchell, founder of the Election Integrity Network, posted on X:

The FBI with the blessing of the Biden DOJ and no doubt the Biden White House initiated and conducted the entire investigation of hundreds and hundreds of RNC, Trump campaign employees, consultants, lawyers, supporters....all for the purpose of DESTROYING the MAGA movement ... by prosecuting / persecuting not only the President but anyone in his orbit.

The records point to an FBI that was settling political scores with a sprawling grand conspiracy operation that seems to have repeatedly violated the Fourth Amendment.  It appears the intention behind the operation was to derail the Trump campaign and crush the populist MAGA movement along with it.

FBI culture may be corrupted in ways that are unsalvageable.  Reportedly, Patel has fired several agents associated with Arctic Frost.  Whether those most responsible will be held accountable remains to be seen.

Image: J via Flickr, CC BY 2.0.