I’ve written repeatedly (e.g., here, here, and here) that people shouldn’t panic about Trump’s tariffs. These were not Smoot-Hawley tariffs levied by a creditor nation against debtor nations, thereby ending the latter’s ability to pay off their debts. Instead, we are a consumer nation that has said to its suppliers, “Play fair, or we stop consuming.” And of course, in this negotiation, China is the biggest supplier of all. The result of Trump’s gambit is that the world’s nations other than China have said, “Yes, we still want into the American market,” while China has stubbornly said the geopolitical equivalent of (pardon my French) “Screw you.”

Trump has responded accordingly, giving a 90-day reprieve to all nations but for China in order to nail down new trade policies. As to China, which is refusing to negotiate with its largest customer, Trump has doubled down:

Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Suddenly, the naysayers are figuring out what Trump and his supporters in this endeavor understood all along: It’s always been about China.

While our trade dealings with other countries were unfair and needed to be fixed, China is—if you’ll pardon me for phrasing it this way—the bull in the China shop that needs to be brought to heel or ejected entirely. Since it entered the World Trade Organization, China has relentlessly cheated to suck away America’s manufacturing sector, draining our wealth and leaving us dependent on a nation that seeks to be the world’s new hegemon.

The celebrations from all sides, both from people like me, who supported Trump’s policy because we understood where he was going, and those who were “Panicans,” are enjoyable. Also, I congratulate those panickers who are gracious enough to concede that Trump knew what he was doing all along:

Picking up where the tweet cuts off, the rest of Ackman’s tweet says,

... barriers.

This is the perfect setup for trade negotiations over the next 90 days.

Advice for China:

Pick up the phone and call the President. He is a tough but fair negotiator. The longer China holds out and retaliates, the worse the outcome for China.

As of this writing, as the tweet immediately above notes, the stock market is madly in love with Trump’s perfectly timed announcement:

Trump is a very stable—and courageous—genius. For decades, politicians have been promising to take on China’s predatory-to-the-point-of-war trade tactics. Trump finally did.

Now, Xi has a choice: Implode China’s already fragile economy or climb down on tariffs (and other predatory practices). It’s not a choice I envy him because both have the potential to destroy him...which would be another win for Trump, given that Xi is way too big for his geopolitical britches.