Canada is in the midst of a national election that will determine the future of Canada and of the Canadian-American alliance.

At this critical juncture, it is essential that the United States and President Trump secure the best tariff deal with Canada. This will maximize U.S. leverage in tariff negotiations and will provide Canadians critical information about how to end tariffs on their country.

While the election in Canada is next Monday, April 28, well over 7 million Canadians have already voted early, with an estimated 10–11 million Canadians yet to vote. It is essential that Canadian voters be informed which major party candidate will be able to achieve the best trade deal with the United States — Conservative Pierre Poilievre or Liberal Mark Carney — far enough in advance of election day.

This is especially important to Canadians because the economic situation in Canada impacts the overwhelming majority of Canadians. If Canada chooses a leader who can work with America to remove tariffs, that can mean the beginning of an economic boom in Canada. However, if Canadians choose a candidate who is unlikely to make a good deal with the United States, that could result in a steep recession in Canada, with very serious implications.

In order to achieve the most beneficial deal to both sides, it is of great importance that President Trump and the Treasury Department achieve a framework deal in advance of Canadian elections. This would effectively pit both major party candidates in a competition of ideas, vying for American approval. If the United States waits until after election day in Canada, that would allow the Canadian government flexibility to stall trade negotiations with the United States and to attempt to achieve a far inferior deal that is bad for the United States, is bad for Canada, and will almost certainly fail.

President Trump and his administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, should reach out to Poilievre and to Carney, requesting each party immediately provide a concise, one-page framework, detailing their plans to eliminate most bilateral tariffs, fix the flawed USMCA dispute resolution system, and ensure that electric vehicle batteries and critical minerals remain 75% North American sourced. The suggested deadline for the submission of these pledges is April 25.

This would allow President Trump and his team to offer his assessment of which candidate's pledge he finds objectively superior or if both are acceptable, and to detail why. This approach allows Canadians the benefit of knowing which economic future awaits them based on which candidate they select, while respecting Canadian sovereignty.

This would mean that Poilievre and Carney would effectively be competing against each other for the superior trade deal with the United States. Both would commit to signing a trade deal that would end the significant majority of the tariffs on Canada when Canada’s new leader assumes office.

However, if such a deal is postponed until after the Canadian election cycle, then whoever wins the elections will feel he has more flexibility to delay a deal. This would be a lost opportunity for the United States and for Canada, as United States leverage will substantially diminish after Canadian elections. Canadians must know which candidate would achieve an economic boom rather than risk a steep recession. Whoever wins on the economy in Canada likely will win the election.

Immediate action ensures maximum benefit and transparency for Canadian voters and U.S. economic interests.

This proposed pledge should specifically include:

1.    Elimination of nearly all Canada–U.S. tariffs effective Day 1, leaving only a very narrow range of products, such as specific steel and aluminum categories necessary to protect American jobs in key Rust-Belt states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.

2.    Reform of the USMCA dispute resolution process to enforce a strict 90-day timeline for panel rulings, with an automatic “snap-back” of tariffs if the deadline is missed, thus ensuring protection for workers on both sides of the border.

3.    Implementation of a 75% North American content rule for electric-vehicle batteries and critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel, and graphite, effectively excluding China from North American supply chains and securing jobs within the continent.

The economic stakes for the United States, and particularly for Canada, must not be underestimated. Immediate tariff relief would dramatically lower production costs for Canadian industries, including Ontario auto manufacturers, Atlantic shipbuilders, prairie-region agricultural machinery producers, and British Columbia's forestry sector, among others.

For the United States, lifting tariffs would reignite cross-border trade, stabilizing supply chains and stimulating economic growth. A transparent agreement now, available for public review, would boost market confidence, stabilizing currency and investor expectations, helping markets recover at such a critical juncture.

Conversely, delaying or avoiding this clear decision risks plunging Canada into a prolonged recession, severely harming workers, families, and communities dependent on trade with the U.S. Canada's economy, much more susceptible than the U.S. economy, could face devastating consequences if tariffs remain unresolved or unclear, or potentially even if delayed until after the Canadian election.

This framework is not about capitulation or interference. Instead, it ensures transparency and accountability, giving Canadian voters a fair and clear choice between two fundamentally different economic outcomes. If both candidates submit strong proposals, Canadians win economically regardless of who they elect. If only one party submits a strong and workable plan, voters can clearly see the risks associated with the other side's lack of readiness or cooperation.

President Trump’s public acknowledgment of the superior proposal would further incentivize both Canadian parties to act responsibly and transparently to end the trade war. It would also demonstrate that the goal of the United States is a mutually beneficial outcome, so long as such a deal adequately protects critical American jobs, the U.S. economy, and ensures American national security.

Canadian voters deserve clarity before they head to the polls, and American workers deserve the assurance that their government is actively protecting their interests.

Ultimately, securing a concrete framework before Canada's election day is a strategic imperative for both countries. It places healthy pressure on both leading Canadian political parties to offer voters a clear economic vision that can be actualized in the immediate future, rather than prolonged uncertainty, a near-certain recipe for an economic beating, especially for Canada. President Trump has consistently advocated for transparent, bilateral, and mutually beneficial trade agreements. Now may be the best time, and perhaps the only time, to realize President Trump’s vision vis à vis Canada.

More importantly, a U.S.-Canada agreement would provide a global example of fair trade deals, removing tariffs, and jumpstarting a global economic boom.

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