“The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus has it ever been.” — The Romance of the Three Kingdoms, circa 1400, attributed to Luo Guanzhong.

At some point, Xi’s Chinese Communist Party will either 1) productively address America’s trade grievances, 2) start military action that risks global thermonuclear war, or 3) itself collapse and throw China into chaos. The first two possibilities have been discussed broadly elsewhere, but let’s think through scenario three because it seems this is our goal.

The history of China is of repeated swings between a consolidated central government and regional warring states. The quotation at the top, from a classic historical novel written about 1400 AD, refers to the collapse of the Han Dynasty in the decades around 200 AD. Other historical examples include the Warring States Period (475 BC to 221 BC) and the “Century of Humiliation” before Mao.

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The CCP has ruled for decades, with the last two or three delivering vastly improved prosperity for the population. After Mao but before Xi, the CCP prided itself on its consensual ruling class, at least at the top reaches of the government. But since Xi came to power, he has consolidated supreme power to himself, much like the emperors of old.

But a trade war with America and a loss of the foreign revenue that it brings to the Chinese economy will cause tremendous internal political pressures. The stresses will likely show between regions, just as in days of old. Already, we see regional parties challenge Xi and then be purged and suppressed in return. Does the region around Shanghai, which is highly dependent on foreign trade, accommodate Xi’s likely losing response to Trump? Does Wuhan see Beijing in the same light as Hong Kong or Hebei?

Xi must certainly understand Trump’s challenge as an existential threat to his rule and the rule of a centralized government under the CCP. A major retrenchment from prior prosperity has always been considered a loss of the Mandate of Heaven and a sign for regime change, whatever the cause.

We should be confident that the Trump Administration understands the stakes here for Xi. Trump has backed Xi into a corner. Xi’s options are bad. He can acquiesce, which will lower Chinese living standards and reduce their international clout. Or he can fight and even escalate, which will lower Chinese living standards and reduce their international clout. Either way, Xi loses face and his power weakens. He may yet retain central control, or he might be replaced with a more consensual and less aggressive CCP leader. Or China as we know it could break into warlordism.

While the US is in a better strategic position and will consolidate our system of alliances and non-Chinese trading partners, how would the world deal with another, contemporary “Period of Warring States” within China?

What emerges after the breakup of the CCP will, without doubt, return to vigorous competition amongst the regional states. That competition could well turn violent, as so often has happened in the past. And somebody is going to inherit the nuclear weapons.

We must hope the US has some plan for dealing with a new Period of the Warring States.

The author recently moved a bit too close to China on the first island chain.