Have you considered annihilation by asteroid?
Deciding when to take Social Security benefits can be tricky. In general, there seems to be consensus that waiting as long as possible to claim is the best pecuniary approach.
Still, it is a very personal decision based on particular factors including one’s health, expected longevity, employment status, marital status, earning potential of one’s spouse, and current resources. Then there is the issue of Social Security solvency, and that the recent passage of the mislabeled Social Security Fairness Act may hasten insolvency by six months or more.
One consideration not usually covered in the Social Security literature about claim timing is the threat of asteroid annihilation.
This is not as outlandish a scenario as first appears. Consider that somewhere out there in the dark void of space is an asteroid intent on disrupting our circadian rhythms. Without our intervention, it’s just a matter of time before one attempts to obliterate us. Unfortunately — desperately — that time may be nigh, at least for a citywide population.
A city-killer asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4 has a 1.2% chance of smashing into our planet in 2032, per NASA scientists. That’s uncomfortably high — a 1-in-83 chance. By comparison, the estimated odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident in the United States are 1 in 90.
The odds of English Football Club Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016 were 5,000 to 1 — but win they did. Before their respective championship-winning seasons, the St. Louis Rams in 1991 and the Minnesota Twins had odds of 300 to 1.
Speaking of twins, the chance of a woman having them is less than two percent overall, the statistical likelihood being not much greater than that of asteroid 2024 YR4 plunging through our atmosphere.
While some calculations (circa 2007) place the odds of dying of an asteroid or comet impact at 1 in 75,000, those figures were unaware of the existence of asteroid 2024 YR4. And there were other celestial unknown unknowns not included. For example, Asteroid 2019 OK, another “city-killer,” snuck up on Earth in 2019. It appeared “out of nowhere,” as close as to within 45,000 miles of Earth.
I just hope the brains at NASA (and elsewhere) have it right when it comes to asteroid Apophis’s track, having projected that it will pass Earth by as close as 19,000 miles in 2029. It had better not get perturbed our way by some unforeseen celestial mass or force before then.
If Earth does get unlucky in the celestial pinball game in 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4 won’t end our species, but it will be a bad day. Even if it impacts an unpopulated, God-forsaken area, the whole build-up will instill panic and foment mayhem. It will likely send financial markets (and just about every facet of life on planet Earth) into turmoil.
If future calibrations of the asteroid’s momentum and direction show increased probability of crashing into Earth, there may be a rush to get one’s affairs in order — including accelerating one’s Social Security retirement application. I’m sure the Social Security offices will shut down even if the asteroid’s trajectory is indeterminate.
For those on the cusp of applying for Social Security retirement benefits, there’d be motivation to file promptly. That’s just another factor in determining the perennial question about when to apply for benefits. As potential impact calculations are refined, the retirement literature should be updated accordingly.