Is the Israel-Hamas ceasefire a good thing or a bad one? *UPDATED*

Israel’s Knesset has approved the ceasefire with Hamas, so it’s a done deal...for now. Whether it will remain done is another question entirely. What is certain is that many who love Israel believe it was a disastrous deal. They are angry at both President-Elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. I, however, am more sanguine. I think it was a necessary deal for Israel and that it won’t be a disaster in the future.

The AP, in an unexpected act of journalism, has a good summary of the deal’s terms:

PHASE 1: (42 days)

  • Hamas releases 33 hostages, including female civilians and soldiers, children and civilians over 50
  • Israel releases 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier
  • Halt to fighting, Israeli forces move out of populated areas to the edges of the Gaza Strip
  • Displaced Palestinians begin returning home, more aid enters the strip

PHASE 2: (42 days)

  • Declaration of “sustainable calm”
  • Hamas frees remaining male hostages (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for a yet-to-be-negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.

PHASE 3:

  • Bodies of deceased Israeli hostages exchanged for bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters
  • Implementation of a reconstruction plan in Gaza
  • Border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza are reopened

Regarding the first phase, there’s a sad possibility that Israel will receive as many, if not more, dead bodies as it receives living ones. However, what’s important is that Israel gets its women, children, and elderly back, no matter their condition. The psychic wound of those missing hostages is greater than anyone in America can imagine, and it is Israel’s Achille’s Heel.

We all know that if Israel said that it will never negotiate for hostages, that would end the whole hostage-taking enterprise. It would also allow Israel to wage all-out war against these existential enemies because the enemies would no longer use hostages as shields. As long as Israel cares more for hostages than winning wars, the forces arrayed against her will always hold the winning card. This deal reflects that.

The halt to fighting sounds like a surrender, but it’s not. Israelis need a respite. After all, they’re fighting not only in Gaza but also on the Northern border against Hezbollah. A two-front war is draining, especially for a small country.

Relative to its population, Israel has lost an enormous number of soldiers. This is partly because, whether because of ethical concerns or because of international pressure, Israel keeps putting its troops at unnecessary risk. They cannot make surprise attacks because they feel obligated and are pressured to protect enemy civilians over their own troops and war ends. As noted, the hostages prevent them from attacking important targets because those targets may be using hostages as shields.

Lastly, Israel, unlike any army in the history of the world, has been flooding enemy civilians with food and supplies, something it will continue to do under the ceasefire agreement. This, by the way, is the opposite of a genocide. If Gazans lack supplies, it’s only because Hamas’s war machine has confiscated them when they enter Gaza. In other words, Israel has been supplying its enemy in its war against Israel. No wonder large majorities of Gazans support October 7 and Hamas and dream of returning to battle:

Within Israel, religious Jews only began to be conscripted this past June. Turning them into fighters is a long-term problem. That means that, for much of the war, only a segment of Israel’s young people were bearing the brunt of combat. With many dead or injured, older people are re-enlisting to carry on the fight:

And that’s the why and how of Phase 1. Israel gets some of its innocent civilian hostages, Gaza gets back lots of people who actively engaged in warfare and murder, both sides get a break from combat, and Gaza residents return home.

If that phase lasts, phase 2 sees living male hostages go back to Israel (assuming there are any), and Israel withdraws troops from Gaza. And in phase 3, the two sides release bodies, Israel works on helping rebuild Gaza, and the borders that Israel has sealed (especially with Egypt, through which arms come) are reopened.

People, obviously, are worried about the Israeli withdrawal and the borders being reopened. It seems to set the stage for starting the cycle all over, especially because Hamas’s new leader, safely ensconced in Qatar, proudly boasted that this is what he plans to do:

However, I don’t believe that there’s too much risk for Israel. It will probably get some of its women, children, and elderly back alive, which is psychologically necessary for Israelis. It will get a much-needed respite from the hot war in Gaza and the cold war that much of the world is waging against it. The negotiations and the deal signing will have protected it from the last few days of the Biden administration (a not inconsequential factor). Lastly, it will ship back to Gaza thousands of prisoners living at Israel’s expense who can be killed when the war resumes.

It’s that last point that’s the kicker. The war will resume. Hamas has never stuck to a ceasefire and never will. It’ll do something to breach the agreement before Israel actually leaves Gaza. And this time, when the war resumes, Israeli civilians will be livid and ready for the fight. More importantly, Israel will finally have America at its back, and that will make all the difference.

UPDATE: I saw this tweet after I finished this post, but it confirms my suspicions:

Image of hostages who might come home. X screen grab.

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