During his first term, President Trump got along fine with Mexico's previous president, socialist Andrés Manuel López Obrador. They enacted the 'remain in Mexico' agreement to deter those seeking to cross into the U.S. illegally to file for asylum, and illegal migration from the south fell sharply lower.

That doesn't seem to be the case with Mexico's current socialist president, Claudia Sheinbaum, a Stanford-educated leftist.

There's been talk like this going around:

Sheinbaum has no clue. Trump’s economic penalties would cripple Mexico if she does not play ball. And U.S. immigrant community in Mexico entered LEGALLY. https://t.co/xbjaG91ecy

— MilnerBear (@modelerr) November 17, 2024

I couldn't find any proof she actually said she would deport Americans if Trump sends back illegally present Mexicans, but a statement like that is pretty redolent of 1960s third world nationalism, particularly in Latin America. Reciprocation on everything since we're all equals, the logic goes. Sheinbaum comes from a family of leftists steeped in those traditions, so it's possible that's her thinking. I can certainly see AMLO thinking such things.

If true, the logic is idiotic. Mexico has thousands U.S. expatriates legally living in its territory, and by Mexican law, they cannot buy land, but they can lease, which is why some parts of Mexico, such as Lake Chapala, San Felipe and Rosarita Beach, have whole communities of U.S. expats. They are all legal residents and unlike the Mexican expats here illegally who consume U.S. services, they contribute greatly to the Mexican economy by spending cash there -- on homes, health care, recreation and living costs. So if Sheinbaum were to deport those Americans in retaliation for Trump's deportation of Mexicans illegally present in the U.S. it wouldn't exactly be an even exchange -- Mexico would be hurting its own economy twofold.

Fact is, it's not out there that she said this so far as I could find. That she sought to reassure people that all is normal might mean she said it earlier and was backtracking now. But again, I don't see any real evidence she said it, just swirling tweets with no sourcing.

Throwing the Americans out would come at a bad time for Mexico, given that other group that contributes to the Mexican economy are the illegals, through their remittances. They send home billions in this cash, which buttresses the Mexican banks and the Mexican federal reserve system, giving the government a lot of leeway for government spending programs, which Sheinbaum is determined to expand.

There have been credible reports that Sheinbaum's worried about losing those remittances if the illegals are forced back home.

A Claudia Sheinbaum le preocupan las remesas si deportan a mexicanos cuando entre Donald Trump

Lo prometió y después de su triunfo ha venido repitiendo que va a cumplir su promesa de deportar a miles de personas que están sin papeles en los EUhttps://t.co/Ludpe8GPeI

— __Á®‡zZ__ Asesinaron a 199,598 con el Merolico (@ELLOSYNOSOTROS) November 13, 2024

That's a far more likely scenario, and likely to make her play nice with President Trump.

Fox News did a pretty good report on smooth sailing between the U.S. and Mexico, and while there are plenty of potential complications, President Trump has played his cards right:

Rodrigo Montes de Oca, a scholar at the Baker Institute Center for the U.S. and Mexico, talked to Fox News Digital and said that "the bilateral relationship will no longer be reduced to a single issue but will be addressed in a broader manner." He explained that "former President López Obrador – AMLO, was very skillful in being able to concentrate the entire bilateral relationship on a single issue: immigration.

He continued, "If AMLO cooperated on immigration, the Biden administration turned the other way on important issues such as security and fentanyl trafficking and all the antidemocratic policies that Mexico was and is promoting. Now with the coming Trump administration, everything is going to be much more complex because they will not only focus on immigration but also on trade and security. That is why Trump went so far as to say during the campaign that if Mexico did not cooperate on these issues, he would make public the U.S. government's intelligence information on politicians in Mexico who are related to drug cartels. The relationship is going to be approached in a more comprehensive way. I don't see that the Mexican government is preparing for that."

That could create a lot of problems, given the internal problems in Mexico with its cartels.

It would probably make sense for Sheinbaum to go out of her way to keep the big gringo off her back, but leftist leaders don't always do what makes sense. We'll have to wait and see, but this seems to be the lay of the land as of now.

Image: Twitter screen shot