Trump’s victory: Why it happened and what we can expect going forward
Many years ago, an Irish friend said to me that he couldn’t imagine Americans voting away their liberty. Up until midnight, I wasn’t sure he was right—and even then, it was close. Now, though, with Trump’s victory cemented and Congress in Republican hands, I can breathe a sigh of relief. For at least two years and then (depending on the midterms) another two years, the U.S. will lean toward liberty and not tyranny. And it’s to be hoped that having been reminded what liberty is like, in 2028, voters will do it all over again.
So, how did yesterday happen and what comes next? A few thoughts.
First, how it happened:
One. It’s a bad idea to run a campaign that explicitly demeans men. Anecdotal evidence shows that men turned out in huge numbers and that women under-performed for the Democrats.
Two. It’s an equally bad idea to tell voters they must vote according to their skin color. Trump had Democrat-destroying numbers of votes from blacks and Hispanics, especially those demeaned men. That’s because no matter the intersectional blather, what matters to voters are the kitchen table issues: affordable prices, safe neighborhoods, and strong borders—and, for many, children who are not indoctrinated into weird sex. Minorities are not mindless, skin-colored voting blocs; they are individuals.
Three. Being the incumbent (which everyone knew Kamala was) doesn’t work when Americans are unhappy. I read through many polls in the past month, and they all showed the same thing, regardless of which candidate was leading in the polled state: People hated the Harris-Biden economy, the open border, and the idea of transgenderism. Most distrusted Harris-Biden when it came to protecting American democracy. And a majority in all but one state polled were less well off than they had been four years ago, and they worried about their children’s futures.
An incumbent cannot easily win with an unhappy electorate, even a good, charismatic incumbent, which Kamala was not, which brings us to the next point.
Four. Kamal was an awful candidate. There was a reason she didn’t win a single primary in 2020 and that the Democrat party made sure she wouldn’t have to face a primary in 2024. She’s utterly fake, from the nervous cackle to the endless array of accents to the oozing sympathy she periodically displayed. Most obviously, her values were faked.
Kamala’s record showed a hard leftist, but she hid that record, even while trying to code-talk to the base that the real Kamala was still there. Her inability to speak plainly meant that she disappointed Muslims, losing Michigan and Minnesota, while her clear bias in that direction (apparent from administration policies and unguarded statements on her part) frightened Jews, whom she lost across America.
You can only be all things to all people when you speak to the core values that unite them: Prosperity and security. Trump did that.
Five. The major last-minute endorsements Trump received (e.g., Joe Rogan, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, tech billionaire Mark Pincus) presaged Trump’s victory because they showed three things: (1) These deeply connected people knew that Trump was going to win, (2) the stigma attached to supporting Trump had ended, and (3), if they were Jewish, like Pincus, they were increasingly terrified of a Kamala administration, fearing both that Israel would be destroyed and that the Jew-hatred at home would grow uncontrollably.
Six. Demeaning ordinary Americans as racist, homophobic “garbage” doesn’t work, especially when you’re openly replacing them with a new population you hope will be more compliant. Rather than running away and hiding in shame, the American people went to the polls.
Seven. Once he found his footing, Trump ran an ebullient, creative campaign that invited people in. He was the quintessential happy warrior and, speaking of warrior, one who had shown extraordinary physical courage in real battle.
I’m sure I’m missing things, but I’m writing off the cuff, so this will have to do. Moving forward, here are the bad things we can expect in the short term:
One. Violence. In Democrat-run cities across America, businesses have been hiding their valuables and boarding up their windows. They didn’t do this because they were worried that Kamala might win. They did this because history shows that the Democrat base gets violent when it’s disappointed or angry.
Two. Bad actors overseas may do bad things between now and Trump’s inauguration. Unless Trump instantly makes it clear to them that the consequences of their actions will be stunning in their immensity, they may figure that it’s easier to act now and apologize later. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Iran’s Mullahs, and other global troublemakers try to get away with power plays while the demented Biden is still in the White House.
And here’s what I hope for a second Trump presidency, especially if the Republican Congress works with Trump, unlike the Republican Congress in 2016.
One. I want to see Mitch McConnell dethroned from his perch as the Senate majority leader. He’s a Uniparty guy and while I’ll always be grateful that he kept Obama from appointing a Supreme Court justice, he’s been nothing but disappointing since then.
Two. Our core institutions will remain untouched: The filibuster won’t go away, the Supreme Court won’t be packed, Puerto Rico and D.C. won’t become states, the Equality Act, which would give special privileges to the LGBTQ+ crowd, won’t become law, and so much more.
Three. We’ll have a border again, and this time, I think Congress will cooperate. In the polls we did, most respondents said that they think a military presence at the border and mass deportations of those already here are good ideas. Depriving illegal aliens of welfare benefits and cracking down on employers should encourage self-deportation. Also, I still like Trump’s (apparently) joking idea about alligators at the border.
Four. The world’s bad actors will know that Trump is loaded for bear, and they will become quiescent.
Five. Trump will end the Ukraine War, and he will let Israel win against Iran’s proxies, which are also America’s enemies. Then, he will bring peace to the Middle East. Iran’s mullahs, one hopes, will be driven from power.
Six. Trump will unleash the American economy by making the American federal government smaller and less heavy-handed, especially when it comes to the left’s regulatory tyranny (e.g., climate change, race-based policing, etc.). I don’t know if he’ll be able to get rid of the income tax, but at the very least, his tax breaks will not expire. He’ll also corral China’s trade depredations.
Seven. World peace.
Eight. Perhaps most importantly, Trump will use game theory against the Deep State. They changed the rules when they used lawfare to go after him and his supporters beginning in 2021. Trump needs to do the same to them, only much, much harder (and with exquisitely good legal and factual grounds). Once they are chastened, we can return the norms. This will also be an opportunity to do a real investigation into the 2020 election.
Again, I’m sure there’s more, but that list is a start.
Finally, we have three people who deserve special thanks.
Elon Musk, whose decision to purchase X allowed free speech in the American election. Scott Presler, whose registration efforts, especially in Pennsylvania, may have delivered the election to Trump. And Lara Trump, who did something Ronna McDaniel wouldn’t have done: She had an army of poll watchers and lawyers on the ground quashing any voting and counting irregularities on election day.
November 5 was a great day, and I look forward to Donald Trump making America great again.
Image: YouTube screen grab (edited for clarity).