When a candidate who is effectively the incumbent has only a one-point lead, but voters distrust her, think her opponent is more competent, and are unhappy with the status quo, that looks like a very shaky lead, indeed—and that’s all Kamala has got in Michigan. If enough voters disliked having her party’s nominal head (that would be Joe Biden) call them garbage or conclude that Harris really is responsible for the sad state of things, Trump might well win Michigan.

According to the poll, Michigan’s likely voters (LVs) have Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%. However, the ranking is reversed when it comes to competency, with likely voters giving Trump a one-point advantage (48-47%). Meanwhile, they’re pretty darn sure that Harris poses the greater threat to democracy (49-44%). In the upcoming contest for U.S. Senate, the Republican, Mike Rogers, is also ahead of the Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, by one point (46-45%).

Michigan’s lukewarm attitude toward the Democrats may be because they’re miserable. A full 63% of LVs say that they are not better off now than they were four years ago, and 53% worry about their children’s futures.

Image by AI.

When asked to rank their most important issues, voters ranked the economy first (34%), followed by border security (20%), with abortion as a distant third (14%). The same ranking occurred when they were asked to list what they thought should be the incoming president’s priority: Rising prices (32%), illegal immigration (30%), and abortion rights (19%).

When it comes to immigration, Michigan’s LVs have had enough. When asked about the current rate of legal immigration, 36% want it to decrease, and 23% want a moratorium. Meanwhile, 60% of them think that the word “invasion” very or somewhat accurately describes the influx of illegal aliens across the Southern border. Moreover, when contemplating the illegal aliens already in America, 64% of Michiganders would like to see the military stop them. The largest number of respondents (28%) blame Biden for the situation.

As in all states, Michigan’s LVs are concerned about election integrity (94%). Fifty-three percent of them think that mail-in voting increases the risk of cheating, and the same number want votes counted on election day. Even more than that—61%—think that paper ballots are the safest option. Like many voters, they’re ambivalent about voting machines. As of now, 33% of Michiganders have already voted, while 53% plan to vote in person on election day.

You can find more results at Rasmussen Reports.