A new American Thinker/Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,030 likely voters in Arizona shows President Trump with a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris if the election were held today. The poll, which has responses from 309 Democrats, 371 Republicans, and 350 Independents, shows that voters in Arizona are most concerned about the economy and immigration. They believe that Trump is the candidate who can be trusted to address those concerns.

When asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 49% of Arizona’s likely voters would vote for Trump, with 47% supporting Harris. This matches closely with the three-point lead Trump has on favorability over Harris (51% to 48%). However, Harris has a two-point lead over Trump regarding “character” (47% to 45%). How Arizona voters feel about a candidate’s character does not affect their votes.

Image by Andrea Widburg

Candidate character also didn’t seem to affect Arizona respondents when asked about threats to America. They believe by a six-point margin that Harris and the Democrats pose a greater threat to democracy than Trump and the Republicans, with 50% assigning the threat assessment to Harris and the Democrats and only 44% to Trump and the Republicans. Paradoxically, though, 46% say Republicans are more likely to act as dictators or tyrants, versus 45% saying Democrats will.

And again paradoxically, when asked to identify America’s biggest enemy, foreign or domestic, the Democrat party topped the list (24%), with China coming in second at 20%. The Republican party lagged in this list at 16%.

Looking at the threat from China, as well as Russia and Iran, 52% of Arizona respondents think that Trump can best be trusted to handle it, compared to Harris (41%).

For Arizona voters, 33% see the economy as the most pressing issue in the upcoming election. After that, their concerns are border security (22%) and abortion (15%). However, when asked what the incoming president’s priorities should be, illegal immigration rose to the top of the list (31%), followed by rising prices (27%). In third place came protecting our democracy (23%).

That same sense of economic trouble was reflected in the fact that 57% of Arizona’s likely voters said that they are not better off now than they were four years ago (34% say they are), while 56% also believe that their children will not be better off (17% say that they will be).

When asked which candidate they trust most to improve the economy, Arizona voters trust Trump over Harris by 52-43%. Forty-three percent of them also say that Joe Biden’s economic policies leave them less likely to support Harris. If Arizonans had to choose between bringing down energy prices or slowing carbon emissions, 59% of poll respondents opted for bringing down energy prices compared to 32% for carbon emissions. Arizona’s likely voters also give Trump a four-point lead on the ability to handle America’s energy policies (49% to 45%).

On immigration, Arizona voters want fewer illegal aliens, not more. Given a choice between a generic candidate who supports amnesty and one who supports deportation, 51% would back a deportation candidate, with 33% backing an amnesty candidate. Sixty-six percent of them feel that the government is doing too little to stop the flow of illegal aliens across the border.

Overall, Arizona voters favor Trump by 55% to Harris’s 37% when it comes to trusting one of the candidates to secure the southern border. If Arizona voters had their way, 23% would stop all immigration, while another 31% would cap immigration at 500,000 annually.

A sizable majority of people polled (63%) also say that America is less safe than it was before, versus only 25% who view it as more safe.

In response to the statement “There are only two genders,” 71% of Arizona’s likely voters agree, with only 33% disagreeing. They’re also not supportive of gender-affirming care for minors, with only 27% supporting it, versus 62% opposing it.

At the congressional level, Republicans had the generic advantage, with 49% of poll respondents saying they’d select the Republican candidate, compared to 45% who would vote for the Democrat. Looking specifically at the race between Ruben Gallego, the Democrat, who has been leading by a fairly wide margin, and Kari Lake, the Republican, the gap between the two candidates is closing, with Gallego garnering 47% of votes from Arizonans responding to the poll and 45% supporting Lake.

Rasmussen Reports sums up the poll results here. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3 points, and Rasmussen Reports has a 95% level of confidence in the results.