In South Carolina, Nikki goes after Democrats for the Republican primary
Nikki Haley’s very well-financed campaign has sent glossy flyers to voters across South Carolina—and not just to Republican voters. Instead, she’s telling every South Carolinian, especially Democrats, to vote for her. On the one hand, the system makes it possible, so why shouldn’t she do it? On the other hand, there’s something really despicable about despoiling the chance for genuine conservatives to pick their candidate.
South Carolina has a completely open primary: Anyone who hasn’t already voted in another primary in the same election cycle can show up and vote in a later primary (since the different parties hold their primaries on different days), no matter that person’s party affiliation or lack thereof.
I’ve long found this utterly appalling. In the American two-party system that formed very soon after America itself came into being, a party’s candidates used to be selected in smoke-filled back rooms by party insiders. The primary process was intended to democratize this by allowing everyone who supports that party to have a say in the person who should represent the party in an election. Open primaries, though, mean that party members no longer have a say in their own representatives. As often as not, their political opponents can interfere with picking their candidates.
And that’s exactly what Nikki Haley is counting on in South Carolina. The one-time governor is trailing Trump badly in her own state. Per Real Clear Politics, here’s the state of polling in South Carolina:
The people of Nikki’s state are very clear that they don’t think she should be their banner carrier in the November 2024 presidential election.
Nikki, of course, knows this. Indeed, it’s entirely consistent with her polling generally. Across America, Nikki is trailing Trump by an average of almost 58 points!
The message is clear: conservatives want Trump. My guess as to the reason for Trump’s overwhelming popularity is that voters know that things went well in America while he was in the White House. They also understand that the staggering government harassment directed at him foreshadows things to come for all of us. He’s also the only one they trust not to be bought.
And yet Nikki won’t give in. She may be assuming (a) that Trump will be imprisoned before he can become the nominee, although that doesn’t mean he can’t run, or (b) that something even worse will happen to him, which are words I don’t even want to think about, much less type. If that happens, she’ll boast that she’s second in line and should have the nomination.
To lend some credibility to her claim that she’s the heir apparent, Nikki needs a few wins under her belt, and nowhere more than in South Carolina. Since her own party won’t vote for her in her home state, all that she can do is tell Democrats that she needs their votes—and that’s exactly what she’s done with an expensive flyer she sent out to South Carolinians. (I don’t know how many South Carolinians, but it seems as if she’s aiming big.)
(Note: Since our system reproduces images badly and deletes them after six weeks, you can see the images here and here. Double-click on the images to enlarge them.))
On the front page, she just exhorts people to vote in the upcoming February 24 South Carolina Republican primary, which is pretty typical stuff:
It’s on the back page that she gives the game away. I’ve highlighted in yellow, with a red box around it, the pivotal language:
EVERYONE is eligible to vote in the February 24th South Carolina Republican Primary, if you didn’t vote in the Democrat primary.
Nikki knows, of course, that with Joe Biden as the incumbent on the ballot, practically no Democrats turned out for their primary, conducted in the first week of February:
Around 131,000 South Carolinians voted in the 2024 Democratic primary, making up just around 4% of registered voters statewide.
[snip]
Turnout for this year's Democratic primary fell well below previous contests. In 2020, 540,000 people — around 16% of voters — participated in the Democratic primary, while in 2016, 373,063 — more than 12% — did the same. In 2012, former President Barack Obama ran unopposed in the primary, but in 2008, 532,151 turned out, accounting for around 23% of registered voters, according to the South Carolina Election Commission.
In other words, the flyer practically instructs the state’s Democrats to vote for her in the Republican primary, diluting the vote of every Republican in the state. It’s hard to think of a more cynical tactic to maintain her position as a potential Republican party presidential candidate.
Image: Nikki Haley (edited). YouTube screen grab.