GOP hopes for taking the Senate majority: Finding better 2024 candidates and better anti-fraud and ballot-harvesting preparation
Let’s start with Montana. Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy Seal, has entered the 2024 Montana Senate race.
I think he has a better shot at beating incumbent Democrat Senator John Tester than Congressman Matt Rosendale, who lost to him in 2018. That year, 2018, was a very good Dem year, and Tester won by 3.6%. Montana is more Republican in presidential election years.
Senator Steve Daines from Montana is running the GOP Senate effort for 2024, and he is trying to find candidates who have a good shot at winning general elections and making primary endorsements accordingly. An insider tells us they don't plan on making the same mistake as in 2022.
Rick Scott, who ran the Senate election strategy in 2022, was a failure, refusing to get involved in primaries. Hence Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania candidates and their losses.
In other 2024 races, West Virginia should be a pickup, with or without Manchin running. Montana will be close, as all of Tester's races always have been.
Ohio is a bit uphill: Sherrod Brown is running with basically the same platform as J.D. Vance did. He is an old-style Dem populist and will be tough to beat. Plus there is no obvious GOP challenger.
Arizona is now a slightly lean-Dem state. Maybe Ruben Gallegos is too far left, or Sinema is a third-party candidate, creating GOP opportunities there.
Michigan is an open seat, but Elissa Slotkin is a good candidate for Dems. I don't think we will win Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr. is a good candidate). Nevada is a possible pickup, but the Laxalt race versus Cortez Masto in 2022 seemed to be a better prospect than 2024 versus Jacky Rosen. Laxalt lost in part due to Dems banking their vote and GOP voters not showing up in crappy weather on Election Day. This problem is fixable if the GOP gets its act together.