It's obvious to anyone in the Democrat camp not totally delusional that Joe Biden's declining mental faculties make him almost impossible to re-elect in 2024.  Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein are two Democrats who have a good grasp of reality, and so they are putting out a signal in the Wall Street Journal — which is read by virtually every media editor in the country — that it is time to push Michelle Obama into running.  That is, if she has not already been convinced by her husband.

Donald Trump's spirited performance in last week's CNN town hall, combined with recent polls, has some Democrats realizing he could be elected president again in 2024. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds President Joe Biden with a 36% approval rating and trailing Mr. Trump by 6 points in a race for the White House. We aren't the only Democrats considering alternatives and wondering: If not Mr. Biden, who should be the nominee? (snip)

If Mr. Biden can't run for re-election, his natural successor is Vice President Kamala Harris. But Ms. Harris is even less popular than the president: Only 35% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of her compared with 41% for Mr. Biden, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll. Ms. Harris's approval rating in November 2021 hit a historic low for any modern vice president, and she is viewed much less favorably than her four predecessors at the same point in their respective tenures.

Furthermore, Mr. Trump trounces Ms. Harris in a general election match-up. According to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released this year, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris by 10 points, 49% to 39%. (snip)

A Zogby Analytics poll released last year found that if Mr. Biden were to bow out in 2024, Mrs. Clinton would be a distant third choice for Democratic primary voters, behind Ms. Harris in second place. The favorite is the only Democrat with broad national appeal: Michelle Obama.

Mrs. Obama is popular within the Democratic Party. She left the White House with a 68% favorability rating nationally and was one of the most admired women in the U.S. from 2018 through 2020, according to Gallup polls. With a broad network of supporters and the ability to resurrect Barack Obama's political organization, she would be the strongest candidate by far. 

While Mrs. Obama has expressed no desire to seek national office, she may be persuaded to jump in if Mr. Biden can't run and Mr. Trump appears close to returning to the White House.

This is more than a trial balloon by Schoen and Stein, who are serious players.  Schoen was a key figure in Bill Clinton's campaigns for president and a White House adviser.  Stein was Manhattan borough president and the last president of the New York City Council.  It is a message: Biden is losing it by the day and could lose if he sticks it out, even to Trump, which is the unimaginable horror in Democrats' (and many establishment Republicans') minds.

So who is the best backup?  They say there is need for a backup plan, but once out of the bag, this is game on.  Unless Michelle claims an absolute lack of interest, then she is OK with it.

Biden would withdraw before South Carolina if she challenged him since he would be humbled there, as Hillary was by Obama in 2008.  Blacks may love the white candidate who kisses up to them, but only until there is a black challenger around.  Our country is much more tribal than it has been since the Civil War. 

Caricature by Donkey Hotey, CC BY-SA 2.0 license.