There will be some surprising results this year in races almost nobody is covering.  Most of the surprises will be due to a general sense of misery among voters, which leads to anti-incumbency. And that can work against both parties.

Today’s evidence:

Chuck Grassley is in big trouble in Iowa (and of course no money is being spent to prop him up one last time).  The Des Moines Register is far and away the best pollster in the country. Ann Seltzer does their work.  They have been spot on for a decade.  Today they have Grassley up only 3 points.  He has always won comfortably before.  Incumbents below 50% this late are in big trouble, and he is only at 46 in this poll.

In Connecticut, Richard  Blumenthal is ahead by 5, with only 49% support.  This is much closer than his previous races, but is in synch with Kathy Hochul up 6 for governor in New York with 50% support.

Mike Lee is in a close race for his senate seat in Utah.

Kevin Stitt, the Republican governor in Oklahoma (!!!!) is trailing in latest poll.

In Washington state, Tiffany Smiley is only a few points behind Patty Murray.

The results show incumbents in trouble from both parties in different sections of the country.

Overall, the anti-incumbency mood helps the GOP, since Dems control the White House and Congress.  What does not help is any candidate spending one second on stolen elections.

It would also help  if Trump went into hiding for a few weeks.  Every time he is the focus of the news, crime, the border, inflation, gas prices, are not.  

If the GOP had better candidates in New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia, all three would be likely pickups and we would hold Pennsylvania.

Graphic credit: gofishdigital.com CC By-SA 2.0 license