First, the obvious:

We — the U.S. — bear much of the responsibility for creating the poisoned atmosphere that inclined Putin to attack Ukraine.  Thirty years of spurning Russia's openly expressed desire after the Soviet collapse for peace and normalcy between itself and Western Europe, including twenty years of gratuitous, deliberately threatening behavior by the West — in 1999 and 2004, actual NATO expansions, in 2008, a promised further expansion, and in 2014, overt anti-Russian meddling in Ukrainian politics — all culminated in Putin's desperate and dangerous act.

In 1991, when the Soviets' external and internal empire dissolved, newly emerged and shrunken Russia's proffer of peaceful relations was real, the first actual chance for cooperative relations between Russia and the West since Tsar Alexander I helped to defeat the marble-tombed war-maker, Napoleon.  That early 1990s Russian offer was successfully resisted through the Iago-like whisperings of America's military/industrial complex, fearful of losing the militarily powerful enemy that was key to its budgets, weapons systems, jobs, and profits.

But in today's world, another motive for the West's stubbornly antagonistic stance toward Russia has entered the picture: without regard to the Ukraine war, Russia of late was as much the object of the Western left's loathing because of its return after the Cold War to nationalism and cultural conservatism, as it was the object of the left's admiration previously because of its embrace of communism.  The resurgent Western left, now allied with the globalists, for years has despised Russia for its return to tradition, just as it despises Poland and Hungary for the same reason.  Now, in the case of Russia, they can mask their cultural loathing in the more respectable garb of opposition to war.

So, through the war we provoked, America's military industrialists have secured for at least a generation Russia's status as an enemy, and America's left (and globalists) has isolated, weakened, and now hope to destroy a powerful opponent of its various insanities and plans to impose them on the entire planet through unopposed, Western-sponsored globalism.  Thus, the Ukraine war, brought to the world by 30 years of spurning peace and 20 years of deliberate provocation, all urged on by America's political elites and by its military industrialists, serves the interests of both our militarists and leftist globalists.

The Republican and populist base senses much of the foregoing.  Much of it listens sympathetically to Tucker Carlson, a brave man in this frenzied, war-mongering environment.  Given these political realities, the Republican Party is going to regret pounding the war drums louder than the Democrats.

A large part of the Republican/Trump base wants no part of the Ukraine war — or any other war not directly motivated by America's interests.  The borders and alliances of Ukraine — part of Russia for the 300 years preceding 1991 — are not.

At the same time, an extended Ukraine war serves the domestic catastrophe–distracting interests of Biden and the left.  For Biden, it is just what the doctor ordered.  And Republican airheads, helpfully spewing Russia-hatred and brimming over with testosterone, thus prolonging the war, are walking right into the trap.

With Lindsey Graham calling for Putin's assassination and Mitt Romney labeling anyone a traitor who suggests that Western serial provocations might have raised understandable Russian security concerns, the Democrats could run as the peace party.  A visitor from Mars, knowing nothing about U.S. politics beyond today's headlines, would certainly conclude that Republican elected officials are more eager to get into this conflict than the Biden administration — and that Republicans are less troubled than the Biden administration by the possibility of a major war between Russia and the United States.

Smart Republicans should be toning down their Russia-hatred and war rhetoric and urging a ceasefire and peace talks — for the sake of the Ukrainian people and their own political prospects.

But taking this approach in the present environment would require sharp political judgment, a knowledge of post–Cold War history, and a bit of courage, all of which are always in chronic short supply among Republican Party officeholders.

"Re-elect the Democrats!  They kept us out of war!"

In 1916, a Democrat president named Wilson squeaked to re-election on that battle cry ("He kept us out of war!") in the midst of a heavily Republican era.  Openly declared enthusiasm for jumping into foreign wars has never been a winning campaign strategy in American politics.

But then, we are dealing here with a political party not noted for clarity of thought — to its own probable and the Ukrainian people's certain sorrow.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore CC BY-SA 2.0 license.