A Wall Street Journal poll contains bad news for the Democrats
The Wall Street Journal published a poll on Friday that delivered wonderfully devastating news to the Biden administration and to the Democrats: Americans mostly think they're doing a bad job. But the truly bad news was that it appears possible that large numbers of Blacks and Hispanics are shifting their allegiance to the Republican Party. Having said that, we all know about the Republicans' uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, whether they fail to reach out to minorities, guard against election fraud, or govern as they promise to during their campaigns.
As a general matter, the Journal reveals that Biden's overall approval numbers are stagnant, with only 42% of Americans approving of his job performance, a number unchanged since a previous Journal poll in November. Of the recent polls, only an NPR/PBS poll from almost two weeks ago gives him a significantly higher approval number although, at 47%, which still means Biden is underwater. On the other hand, an IBD/TIPP poll from roughly the same time as the NPR/PBS poll had Biden at 39% approval.
What's most interesting is the running average chart on the Real Clear Politics poll page. The trend is devastating for a political party that holds both Congress and the White House as it heads into the midterms.
On specific policies, despite the Democrats' myriad and manifest failures, a weirdly high percentage of voters still seem tolerant of or even favorably inclined toward the Democrats, although those numbers are falling. Although all evidence indicates that Democrats did a dismal job of managing COVID in 2021, they have an 11-percentage point lead over Republicans on the issue, although they've dropped 5 points since November.
Likewise, Democrats still retain a 5-percentage-point lead on education, but that's down from an earlier 9-point lead. When it comes to protecting the middle class, which started being a Democrat issue practically under Roosevelt, the Democrats are now tied with the Republicans.
Image: Joe Biden. YouTube screen grab.
Where the Democrats are experiencing real pain is inflation, which half of those polled said was the single most important issue for them. By a sizable majority — 63% — voters disapprove of how Biden has handled inflation. Worse (for the Democrats), 47% of voters think Republicans could do a better job, and only 30% think the Democrats could.
But buried in the Journal article about the poll is something much worse than the specifics for this policy or that. This is the killer information:
By 9 percentage points, Hispanic voters in the new poll said they would back a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat.
Democratic margins also eroded among Black voters, who favored a Democrat for Congress by 35 percentage points in the new survey, down from 56 points in November. Support for a Republican candidate rose to 27% among Black voters, up from 12% in November.
For as long as I can remember, the conventional wisdom has been that a Democrat cannot win the presidency without overwhelming support from Black voters. That overwhelming support is diminishing rapidly. And Democrats may have lost Hispanics entirely. As Silvio Canto, Jr., has regularly written, Texas Hispanics in the border regions are not pleased to have millions of people overrunning their cities, towns, and ranches. No wonder Democrats are now worrying about "white nationalist Hispanics," a trope first launched during the George Zimmerman trial after the media were stunned to learn that he was, in fact, Hispanic.
When it comes to minorities, I'm certain that part of their fading allegiance to the Democrat party comes about because of Trump's presidency. Even as they were told to despise Trump because he was a "white supremacist," they noticed that his policies benefited them greatly. Many were making economic strides unlike any they had made before.
The instant Trump left office, minorities' economic advances didn't just stagnate; they ended, thanks to Biden's COVID mandates and inflation. For the first time ever, minorities got a concrete lesson about the fact that, while Democrats insist that only Democrats love minorities, it's the "love" of an abusive spouse who routinely beats his partner while proclaiming his love.
Of course, polls are not elections, and the Republicans have a unique knack for losing. Almost worse than losing is the fact that, when they win, they immediately betray their voters by placating the Democrats, fighting among themselves, and embracing Uniparty politics. In that regard, it's worth remembering that the Republican establishment often joined with Democrats to destroy Trump, the only president since Reagan to try to keep his promises.
What we want is this:
I don’t want just any Republican in 2024. I want someone who is going to go scorched earth on our corrupt administrative state & will play aggressive offense without apology— Allie Beth Stuckey (@conservmillen) March 11, 2022
Even if, in November, Republicans were to get a veto-proof majority in Congress, you know there's a good chance that what we'll get is...more of the same.