'Experts' struggle to explain why the free state of Florida has half the COVID case rate of masked and vax-mandated California

It's definitely embarrassing for "experts" when the people following their advice do worse than those who flout it.  But that's currently the case when it comes to reining in COVID.  Leslie Eastman writes at Legal Insurrection:

Just ahead of the recall election that he survived, Gov. Gavin Newsom boasted that California "continues to lead the nation" as the only state to reach the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's yellow "moderate" tier of community virus transmission. Meanwhile, Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis was getting a media pounding for his state's case rate.

Now California's case rate is twice that of the Sunshine State's.

Have you noticed that Sweden, which never locked down and which focused on protecting the most vulnerable — as has always been the approach taken to epidemics until China role-modeled total lockdowns to fight the virus it created — has virtually disappeared from the media?  Turns out that COVID is not exactly exploding as the winter months force people indoors, where virus transmission is more probable than outdoors:


Why, it's almost as if we've been given bad advice and paid an enormous cost for measures that haven't solved the epidemic and may have made it worse.  Children losing more than a year of in-person schooling.  Medical tests and procedures postponed or canceled.  Businesses destroyed.  Unbearable psychological stress and soaring suicide rates among children.  "Two weeks to flatten the curve" made sense at a time when hospitals might have been overrun, but the "two weeks" part lasted less than two weeks.

Eastman cites a University of California San Francisco expert who is trying to explain.  It's herd immunity, even if that term is not used here:

California saw fewer coronavirus infections over the summer than states with lower vaccination rates as the Delta variant rapidly spread in unvaccinated communities.

But those who were infected now have immunity, meaning there are fewer people spreading the virus.

"These regions are now being partly protected by high prior infection rates," Dr. Bob Wachter, chair of the medical department at the University of California-San Francisco, recently told The Mercury News. "But these people whose immunity comes from COVID are not very well protected, and their immunity will wane with time."

Now, Dr. Wachter is incomparably better credentialed than I am, and UCSF is a top medical school, but I wonder why he is so certain that natural immunity will fade more than vaccines, which we already are told require booster shots.  This massive (2.5 million people) Israeli study found "that natural immunity is stronger and longer-lasting than vaccination, but also noted that a single dose of vaccine likely can offer additional protection from the Delta Variant to those who recovered from SARS-CoV-2."

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