Democrats bet the future of their party on his assurances...and now he tells them they've blown it
There is a good argument to be made that the most influential figure in the Democrat party for the last three decades is political scientist named Ruy Teixeira. Teixeira co-authored a 2002 book, The Emerging Democrat Majority, that told Democrats that the demographic rise of Hispanics and the decline of whites (as if many Hispanics were not Caucasian) all but guaranteed one-party power. Because his co-author was a DAWM — a Dreaded Anglo White Male, Teixeira got most of the attention and power out of the prognostication, because, after all, white males are out of favor with the Dems.
More than anything else, this dream of political power on the backs of Hispanic immigrants — and illegal aliens — is responsible for the open borders that characterize this country right now, and whenever a Democrat is in the White House.
But it turns out — much to the shock and dismay of Democrats — that people who speak Spanish have brains that function, and human agency — the ability to make up their own minds and act on the basis of conclusions they reach. This sort of behavior may be frowned on by the Democrats, whose party chief after all declared, "You ain't black" if you don't vote for him. But it turns out that Hispanics refuse to fall in line with Democrats' prescription of mindlessness.
Fuzzy Slippers of Legal Insurrection draws our attention to Teixeira's warning to the Dems that Hispanics are not behaving as he predicted, and as his party bet they would:
Ruy Teixeira, the political scientist behind the much-lauded (and much-maligned) leftist mantra that "demographics is destiny," has some bad news for today's Democrats: not only do they still need white, particularly working class, voters, but their radical leftist socio-cultural and economic agenda is turning off too many Latino and Hispanic voters for their 'demographic destiny' to manifest. (snip)
Teixeira has watched it all, and he's been watching voting trends among the demographics the Democrats believe they own (after all, if you don't vote for Biden, you ain't black, right?). This casual racism is one of the problems that Teixeira is now pointing out as problematic for the Democrat party and its (dashed) dream of an emerging demographic-based Democratic majority.
Teixeira writes at his substack:
The latest data release from the 2020 Census, which will be used to guide decennial redistricting, has been greeted rather breathlessly by the nation's media and has been absolute catnip for commentators and observers who lean toward the Democrats. Consider some of these headlines:
"America's White Population Shrank for the First Time";
"Vast Stretches of America Are Shrinking. Almost All of Them Voted for Trump".
"Census release shows America is more diverse and more multiracial than ever"
None of this is necessarily wrong, though it's worth noting that these findings are consistent with trends of long-standing rather than something qualitatively new. What is questionable however is the political gloss that tends to put on these results. Leftist filmmaker Michael Moore called the announcement "the best day ever in US history", which, while over the top, fairly represents the delight among most progressives that a presumably conservative white population is in precipitous decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the harbinger of a diverse, progressive future America. (snip)
As the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.
And these Hispanic voting trends have not been favorable for the Democrats. According to Catalist, in 2020 Latinos had an amazingly large 16 point margin shift toward Trump. Among Latinos, Cubans did have the largest shifts toward Trump (26 points), but those of Mexican origin also had a 12 point shift and even Puerto Ricans moved toward Trump by 18 points. Moreover, Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to Florida (28 points) and Texas (18 points) but also included states like Nevada (16 points), Pennsylvania (12 points), Arizona (10 points) and Georgia (8 points).
These reduced margins are why, despite Hispanics' increased vote share in 2020, their contribution to Democrats' improved national margin in this election was actually negative — that is, they made a negative one point contribution to Biden's vote margin relative to Clinton's in 2016. The same pattern can be seen in key swing states.
The real, underlying problem is that people who speak Spanish as their native language want the opportunities for personal advancement that hard work and persistence bring in a free society. Moreover, just like Italian immigrants of a century or more ago, who were regarded as "nonwhite" and perpetual Democrats, Hispanic people rise in status and accomplishment after immigrating. Even worse (from the Democrats' standpoint), they tend to be socially conservative, value family, and do not want to be addressed as "Latinx." They, in fact, resent many of the demands of P.C. culture.
Today, Hispanic voters in California are believed to hold the key to the future of Governor Gavin Newsom, who faces a recall election. His lockdowns did not hurt people who work from home via computer, but they did hurt people who work with their hands, in many cases. The social agenda of the California Democrats, with transgender concerns high on the list, does not hold a lot of appeal, either.
Donald Trump did a tremendous job making inroads on the Hispanic vote (the black vote as well, albeit less so). Now that the author of the strategy is alerting Dems of their folly, will they retreat?
Not bloody likely. They're not going to close the border. They are not going to tell AOC to sit down and shut up. Too many people have an interest in keeping on keeping on with the Hispanic strategy.
The GOP needs to press home the Democrats' extreme social agenda, their commitment to lockdowns, and their elitism, especially the default of letting radical teachers' unions convert schools into indoctrination centers.
As for Teixeira, he could take his motto from Animal House:
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