Predictably, pundits and pollsters switch from propagandists to prognosticators and report 'tightening race' right before the election

You can tell that most modern MSM polls and punditry are propaganda efforts, not genuine attempts to measure attitudes and predict voting behavior, because the same thing happens every four years.  Throughout any recent presidential campaign, polls report an insurmountable lead for the Democrat, discouraging donors and activists from supporting the Republican nominee and encouraging people who like backing winners to donate and vote Democrat.

Then, right before Election Day, suddenly we see reports that "the race tightens."  The pollsters know that they will be judged by their results' proximity to the actual vote totals, so they go into CYA mode at the very last minute.

This year, it's been particularly egregious because the visible facts on the ground so powerfully contradict what the polls are telling us.  Trump draws thousands of wildly enthusiastic supporters, even late at night or in inclement weather.  Biden draws humiliatingly small crowds — double-digit numbers or at best low triple digits.

This year's rush to strengthen the Republican candidate's numbers shows up in the Real Clear Politics Poll Average, which is a lagging indicator, including older polls as well as the most recent ones:

Just four days before the election, as the highly respected Iowa Poll reported:

Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.

The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren't sure and 5% don't want to say for whom they will vote.

In September's Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.

Yesterday, two of the three broadcast networks cautioned their audiences that victory for Biden is not assured.  NBC:

Biden is leading Trump in 2020 polls. But expect Election Day to be a repeat of 2016.


And on the third broadcast network, ABC, Nate Silver, who has seen Biden as the overwhelming favorite (as he did Hillary in 2016):

Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday. (snip)

  • "Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. ... But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog."

Nate is not giving up on Biden:

The big picture: FiveThirtyEight gives President Trump a 10% chance of winning the election and Biden a 90% chance.


If you experience technical problems, please write to