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October 18, 2020

Looking on the bright side: 15 reasons the polls may be wrong

By Andrea Widburg

When people ask me to predict whether Trump or Biden will win the election, I like to say that I don’t predict elections; I just worry about them. However, as a worrier, I’m always on the lookout for signs that will ease my worries. With the election only 17 days away, there are a surprising number of signs that Biden’s allegedly spectacular polling lead is illusory.

Before beginning this post about identifying positive trends, it’s important to remember that the polls – both state-by-state and national – are still showing Biden in the lead. Here’s a screengrab from Real Clear Polls with that information:

That’s the bad news. Here is the more cheering information:

1. The Biden campaign, which used the Wuhan virus as an excuse not to have any ground game, is suddenly sending volunteers to do door-to-door canvassing in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada. You don’t do that if you’re confident you’ll win.

2. Obama is hitting the campaign trail for Biden. That’s a sure sign of insecurity.

3. Biden’s campaign manager admitted that the pro-Biden polls are inflated.

4. Since the revelations about Hunter Biden hit the news, an IBD/TIPP poll shows that Biden's support dropped by slightly over two percentage points, while Trump’s support rose by almost .6 percent.

5. There’s an interesting trend in voting by mail (“VBM”), a concept that Democrats were confident would benefit them. Unexpected numbers of Republicans are using VBM. The initial VBM numbers hugely favored Democrats and undoubtedly will continue to favor them. However, the number of Democrat VBM numbers is stagnant, while the number of Republican VBMs continues to rise.

6. Larry O’Connor has an interesting theory about why the polls are completely wrong, even though they’re now tapping the more reliable “likely voter” metric (as opposed to the “registered voter” metric). You should read his article, but here’s the gist:

A “likely voter” is one who’s an experienced voter. That is, he knows where votes are cast, has voted before, and votes often.” In this election, though, Trump’s support comes from unlikely voters, whom the polls ignore.

Ronna McDaniel’s data shows that up to 36% of people who make the effort to attend a Trump rally did not vote in 2016, and that substantial percentages have never voted:

 

 

 

 

 

 

7. There’s good evidence that the people who haven’t voted but are attending the rallies are registering to vote. In Florida, a key state to win the election, new Republican halved the once huge advantage Democrats had. Republican registration is also rising in Pennsylvania, another must-win state.

Also, while this tweet from Scott Pressler is anecdotal, it aligns with O’Connor’s point about unlikely voters:

 

 

8. Trump’s fierce fight against China is paying off. Vice News, to its credit, looked at the Iron Range in Minnesota (you may remember Mayor Robert Vlaisavljevich’s speech at the Republican convention) and discovered that the formerly true blue Democrat region is all-in for Trump:

I predict that the recent revelations that Biden is in China’s pocket will accelerate that trend, given that the Iron Range jobs went to China.

9. The rising enthusiasm for Republican voter registration is directly tied to winning at the ballot box. A JPMorgan analyst ran the numbers and proved what seems intuitive: that changes in voter registration are a significant predictor of voting outcomes. If people are enthusiastically registering as Republicans, they’ll vote for Republicans.

10. Fifty-six percent of Americans think they’re better off now than they were four years ago -- a metric that got Reagan elected in 1980 because no one felt that way about Carter and re-elected in 1984 because everyone felt that way about Reagan. Even Biden conceded that, if the answer to that question is “yes,” voters should go with Trump.

11. The all-important swing voters who went from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 plan to stick with Trump and expect him to be reelected.

12. The Trafalgar Group, which was the only polling company correct about the battleground states in 2016, says that Trump will win with 275 electoral votes.

13. Ice Cube, an iconic rapper, has broken with the Democrats and, albeit reluctantly, supports Trump, noting that Democrats are doing nothing for blacks while Trump’s team is trying. (Language warning.)

 

 

14. Bobbleheads presage a Trump victory:

 

 

15. One CBS reporter shouted out support for another CBS reporter who dared ask Biden about the Hunter Biden scandal. I read this to mean that the media may be edging back from the abyss of partisanship and returning to reporting, which will mean that MSM outlets will report on the Biden scandal:

 

 

16. Trump rallies versus Biden rallies:

 

 

UPDATES:

17. According to Lochel's Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, that makes cookies decorated in red or blue, its Trump cookies are flying off the shelves in a way that's never happened before. This matters because its cookie sales have accurately predicted the last three presidential elections.

 

 

 

 

Image: MAGA rally in Macon Georgia. Twitter screengrab.

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