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September 1, 2020

Rasmussen Reports noticed something very fishy about polling

By Andrea Widburg

One of the most famous clues in a Sherlock Holmes mystery is what's commonly referred to as "the dog that didn't bark," or, as Holmes actually said, "the dog did nothing in the night-time."  Rasmussen Reports, which puts out a Daily Presidential Tracking Poll like clockwork, noticed that its competitors ceased barking (or, if you prefer, polling) after the two parties held their conventions.  According to Rasmussen, which would know, this silence was unprecedented.

Rasmussen published a series of tweets on Monday openly snarking at its competitors for their silence.  Moreover, whoever is writing Rasmussen's tweets was not shy about identifying a reason for the other polling outfits' unusual reticence: the narrative up until the conventions was that Biden was unstoppable; it's now quite possible that he's been stopped.

Rasmussen then retweeted a reply it received to the above post, one showing how active the polling was in 2016:

Next, Rasmussen tweeted its own version of the same data:

By its next tweet, Rasmussen was hitting hard at the possibility that the pollsters keeping a post-convention silence may be worried that, with black support for Trump climbing, presidential polls would destroy The Narrative:

As if to turn up the volume on Biden's falling poll numbers, Rasmussen later retweeted Jack Posobiec showing a scattering of people who showed up in Pittsburgh to see Biden's speech.  Even in a time of Wuhan virus, it seemed like a small, lackluster crowd:

By late afternoon, Rasmussen was feeling downright frisky about its willingness to show numbers revealing that Trump's approval today almost matches Obama's approval at the same time in 2012, when he was re-elected:

By the end of business on Monday, Rasmussen pointed out that two other post-convention polls had finally emerged, one following the DNC and the other following the RNC:

Rasmussen has highlighted the fact that the left has weaponized polling.  It frames questions and weights its polls to energize Democrats and demoralize Republicans.  People like a winner, and the left-leaning polling companies know that if a candidate appears to be winning, he will automatically attract more voters.

Like the dog that didn't bark in the night, the pollsters who are remaining quiet are giving us a clue: their numbers are probably showing that, no matter how they ask their questions or weight their polls, Trump is surging and Biden submerging.

Moreover, if the momentum now shifts to Trump, that creates an even worse situation than would have happened in past elections.  Most serious political watchers suspect that, if asked, Trump-supporters are keeping quiet.  They are afraid of insults and threats to their jobs, to their peaceful lives, and to their and their families' safety.  However, if voters sense that the tide is turning, more will speak up.  After all, we all know the Spartacus promise that, if one or two or three show moral courage, others will follow:

Courage is contagious, and that thought, more than any other, seems to have pollsters in a panic.

Image: Rasmussen challenges the narrative; screengrab from a shareable tweet.

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