After RNC, smart money is swinging toward Trump
What do people willing to put money down on it say about Trump in the wake of last night's closing Republican National Convention?
MarketWatch reports a huge swift swing toward President Trump, a record high.
Betting odds have shifted dramatically toward President Donald Trump, though former Vice President Joe Biden remains narrowly ahead. The U.K. site Betfair reported the greatest convention period improvement of any candidate since election trading began on the Betfair Exchange in 2004, as Biden's odds are the longest since May. Betfair on Friday said the current odds imply a 51% chance of Biden winning.
Which is a great sign the long drought in the polls for Trummp may be over. Stocks are up. Jobs are coming back. COVID has peaked. And now the Republicans have put out a terrific convention.
People put money out when they bet and if they get it wrong, they shell out, so the fact that more are laying money down for a Trump win is a stronger indicator than any poll.
It incidentally parallels what's been identified as the most important of voter polling questions - who voters expect will win, rather than who they want to win.
It's said to be a far more reliable indicator than ordinary polls.
Here's what's even better:
It's a trend, RealClearPolitics has a timeline graph of how the betting odds are going collectively -- over time and from multiple sources:
Look at how deep the losses are for Biden in the August segment at the bottom - a lot more than President Trump's gains from early in the year.
Trump's not out of the woods yet, but to mix a metaphor, the trend is his friend.
Image: RealClearPolitics // fair use