He's back: Trump gains on Biden to near tie in new Rasmussen poll

Has Trump finally turned a corner?  Sure looks like it, with a sizable rebound in the polls.

According to Rasmussen, one of the most reliable pollsters, Trump is running neck and neck with Democratic rival Joe Biden.

Here's Paul Bedard's Washington Examiner report:

A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling.

On Wednesday, the race stood at 45% for Trump and 47% for Biden, well within the poll's margin of error. It was published in Rasmussen's weekly "White House Watch" feature.

Separately, Rasmussen said that Trump has boosted his approval rating to 49%, with 50% of respondents disapproving.

What's more, at this stage of his presidency, former President Barack Obama also had a 49% approval rating and went on to win reelection with 51% of the vote.

Here are a couple of charts from RealClearPolitics's average of polls, which demonstrate that this particular poll is not a fluke, but a trend:


Image credit: RealClearPolitics, fair use.  See bigger chart at RealClearPolitics here.

Notice that in the first chart, the last three polls all show a considerable gain for Trump compared to the polls that preceded them.

Notice also that in the second chart, there are gains for Trump, but also gains for Biden.  Combine that second chart with the first, which shows the narrowing of Biden's lead, and it's clear that the Trump gains are coming on a stronger current to overtake Biden.  Rasmussen found that the enthusiasm factor for Biden, while up, was not nearly as strong as the enthusiasm factor for Trump.  The whole thing shows a trend.  And for Trump, the trend is your friend.

People are starting to make up their minds.  It's significant that Rasmussen is the pollster that reports this near-overtaking of Biden by Trump.  Rasmussen forecast the last election with very close accuracy.  The only pollster that I think is better is IBD/TIPP, and we will look to hear from them soon.

What's changed is that Trump is getting out there more, with press conferences featuring himself on the coronavirus, with his defense of Western civilization and American history against leftist thugs and barbarians, and his brilliant speech at Mount Rushmore, which perhaps took some time to sink in since the bounce was not huge at the time, but it certainly started then and has since gone on to get bigger.

There's also the leftist chaos and mayhem of the blue cities, which Joe Biden has yet to condemn.  Americans don't like that kind of Caracas-ization of their country, which in fact is the destruction of their freedom.  They don't want to see cities such as Chicago become Juárez, Mexico–style shooting zones.  And leftist cancel culture — right down to the toppling of statues and the renaming of sports teams — is taking a toll.  Something is starting to sink in, and voters are starting to make up their minds.

It couldn't come at a better time.  And it's likely to just keep getting better.  People are starting to think...

Image credit: Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia CommonsCC BY-SA 3.0.  Extracted image, processed with FotoSketcher.

Has Trump finally turned a corner?  Sure looks like it, with a sizable rebound in the polls.

According to Rasmussen, one of the most reliable pollsters, Trump is running neck and neck with Democratic rival Joe Biden.

Here's Paul Bedard's Washington Examiner report:

A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling.

On Wednesday, the race stood at 45% for Trump and 47% for Biden, well within the poll's margin of error. It was published in Rasmussen's weekly "White House Watch" feature.

Separately, Rasmussen said that Trump has boosted his approval rating to 49%, with 50% of respondents disapproving.

What's more, at this stage of his presidency, former President Barack Obama also had a 49% approval rating and went on to win reelection with 51% of the vote.

Here are a couple of charts from RealClearPolitics's average of polls, which demonstrate that this particular poll is not a fluke, but a trend:


Image credit: RealClearPolitics, fair use.  See bigger chart at RealClearPolitics here.

Notice that in the first chart, the last three polls all show a considerable gain for Trump compared to the polls that preceded them.

Notice also that in the second chart, there are gains for Trump, but also gains for Biden.  Combine that second chart with the first, which shows the narrowing of Biden's lead, and it's clear that the Trump gains are coming on a stronger current to overtake Biden.  Rasmussen found that the enthusiasm factor for Biden, while up, was not nearly as strong as the enthusiasm factor for Trump.  The whole thing shows a trend.  And for Trump, the trend is your friend.

People are starting to make up their minds.  It's significant that Rasmussen is the pollster that reports this near-overtaking of Biden by Trump.  Rasmussen forecast the last election with very close accuracy.  The only pollster that I think is better is IBD/TIPP, and we will look to hear from them soon.

What's changed is that Trump is getting out there more, with press conferences featuring himself on the coronavirus, with his defense of Western civilization and American history against leftist thugs and barbarians, and his brilliant speech at Mount Rushmore, which perhaps took some time to sink in since the bounce was not huge at the time, but it certainly started then and has since gone on to get bigger.

There's also the leftist chaos and mayhem of the blue cities, which Joe Biden has yet to condemn.  Americans don't like that kind of Caracas-ization of their country, which in fact is the destruction of their freedom.  They don't want to see cities such as Chicago become Juárez, Mexico–style shooting zones.  And leftist cancel culture — right down to the toppling of statues and the renaming of sports teams — is taking a toll.  Something is starting to sink in, and voters are starting to make up their minds.

It couldn't come at a better time.  And it's likely to just keep getting better.  People are starting to think...

Image credit: Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia CommonsCC BY-SA 3.0.  Extracted image, processed with FotoSketcher.