The Libyan proxy war over the control of the country's oil and gas reserves could intensify if Russia and Turkey do not make a deal on the future of the strategically important city of Sirte.

The Moscow-backed Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Ankara-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) are actively preparing for a battle that could be a turning point in this phase of the conflict.

The two nations are not the only foreign powers involved in the Libyan civil war.  Libya is a de facto partitioned country where the LNA, backed by Russia, Greece, Egypt, France, and the United Arab Emirates, controls most of the Libyan territory, including the majority of oilfields and gas reservoirs.

The GNA, which is the U.N.-recognized government, is backed by Turkey, Italy, and Qatar.  Its forces recently made significant progress by regaining areas south and east of the capital, Tripoli. 

The two sides are expected to get involved in fierce fighting for control over the oil-rich province of Sirte, which is the route that one has to control to dominate the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where 11 oil pipelines and three gas conduits reach the Mediterranean coast.

There is still hope to avoid such a bloody scenario.  Russia and Turkey are reportedly negotiating the control over the area, although the countries' Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Mevlut Cavusoglu recently postponed their meeting.

For all actors involved in the Libya's civil war, Sirte seems to be a "red line," which means that it will not be easy to make a compromise.  When it comes to Russia, it might be willing to "sacrifice" Sirte in an exchange for Turkey's concessions in Syria, where Ankara backs various jihadi factions against Moscow's client, Bashar al-Assad.  However, the involvement of countries such as Egypt, Greece, and France, among others, further complicates situation in Libya.

In November 2019, Ankara signed a maritime delimitation agreement with Libya's internationally recognized government (GNA) in an attempt to gain control over the energy-rich area of the eastern Mediterranean.  Opposing the deal, Greece said any such accord would be geographically absurd, as it ignores the presence of the Greek island of Crete between the coasts of Turkey and Libya.  The maritime agreement is expected to enormously benefit Turkish offshore gas interests.  Although the deal has already sparked a backlash from Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt as it attempts to grant Turkey rights to natural gas in territorial waters claimed by those nations, it is extremely unlikely that any of these countries will fight a direct war against Turkey.  Instead, they will likely keep supporting their proxies in Libya in an attempt to prevent Turkey-backed forces from capturing Sirte.

The United States recently accused Russia of delivering fighter jets to LNA, which is something the Kremlin denies as it tries to camouflage its actions in Libya, the same way it hides its involvement in the Donbass conflict.

Unlike Moscow, Ankara openly supports its proxies in the North African country.  The Turkey-backed GNA currently controls a relatively small portion of the Libyan territory along the Mediterranean, but since Turkey plans to set up permanent military bases in Tripolitania, the situation on the ground can change in the foreseeable future, which is something that worries neighboring Egypt.

It is worth noting that Turkey supports various Islamic organizations, including those affiliated with al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood.

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood was banned after the army overthrew the then president, Mohamed Morsi.  If Ankara sets up a permanent military base in Libya, that could mean a surge in the development of radical Islamist organizations in the North African country.  In other words, Egypt could face waves of destabilization, and Turkey would assure its geo-economic interests in the region, primarily though control of natural resources.  That way, Turkey would be able to extract natural gas directly from the Mediterranean Sea instead of buying it from Russia.  That is the key point of confrontation between Moscow and Ankara in Libya.

Finally, the very fact that Russia and Turkey tend to make a deal over Libya's natural resources poses a serious threat to NATO and its reputation.

It is worth mentioning that there are members of the alliance on both sides in this proxy war.  Turkey and Italy support GNA, while France and Greece back LNA.  Since 2011, military contingents of the United States, Great Britain, France, and Italy have been operating in Libya.  Later, in one form or another, Greece and Turkey joined the actions in the North African nation.

Naturally, in spite of empty phrases about bringing freedom and democracy to Libya, all these countries tend to achieve their own military-political and economic goals in the region at the expense of NATO and third countries.  Russia is no exception.  Besides arms trade, the Kremlin's primary goal is to spoil Turkish business in the Mediterranean and keep Ankara dependent on Russian energy.

Quite aware of that, Turkey will either make a deal with Russia, or it will encourage its proxies in Libya to capture Sirte, which will provide Ankara a stronger negotiation position.  In any case, the future of this oil-rich city could indicate future zones of influence in war-weary Libya.

Nikola Mikovic is a geopolitical analyst based in Europe and a contributor to Tsarizm, Weekly Blitz, and Global Comment.

Image credit: Kremlin.ru.