From the perspective of Risk Theory doctrine, most of the first world (Western European Countries, the US, Canada, Japan) was ready for a flu pandemic. The issue is that the Pandemic they were ready for was modeled on recent experiences of the last 20 years: SAARS, ebola in Africa, swine flu, and bird flu. In intelligence analysis, the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) and general Risk theory and gaming, we use the foundation of the most likely threat/enemy course of action/risk and the most dangerous threat/enemy course of action/ risk.  What no country in the world imagined was the size, geographic reach, and transmission/ mortality rates of this corona virus pandemic. These pandemic approaches very much what in the theoretical risk gaming is the most dangerous threat/risk and is very far away from the most likely one. One of the most important factors in risk management gaming and preparedness is achieving the critical balance point between both the most likely...(Read Full Post)