Europe's ongoing immigration problem

Europe is about to be inundated by another massive wave of immigrants.  They are coming from Syria via Turkey as the result of Syrian president Assad's assault on the last rebel stronghold of Idlib.  The Syrian civil war has evolved into such a mess that it is hard to keep track of the participants.  Apart from the Syrian government fighting Syrian rebels, the Russia, Kurds, Turkey, Iran, and outside jihadist groups are involved.  Notice the one country that's missing from this mayhem -- the United States. Thank you, President Trump.  

The Syrian civil war began some seven years ago, resulting in a mass exodus.  Turkey has absorbed approximately four million of Syrian refugees along with another two million or so in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.  As Assad and his Russian allies prepare for their final blood push into Idlib, projections are that a million or more refugees could come streaming out of Syria and into neighboring Turkey.

Frustrated with Europe's lack of support for his actions in Syria, Turkish president Recep Tayip Erdoğan has opened Turkish borders, giving the green light for the refugees to stream into Europe.  Citing the number of refugees his country has already taken in, Erdoğan cuttingly tells Europe to "take your share of the burden." 

Europeans are in a fix.  They will resort to the only thing they know how to do: having conferences like the one scheduled on March 5 between Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, and Erdoğan, and maybe throw some euros Turkey's way.  The prospects of that solving the problem are nil.  Since Merkel welcomed immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, Western Europe has failed to show the slightest will to use force to control its borders. 

This Syrian crisis is bad for Europe, but much worse is yet to come.  The populations of Africa and the Middle East are exploding.  The post-WWII global order of stability was maintained by the U.S. almost single-handedly holding things together.  But now America is out of that business.  And this is not just President Trump's doing.  There is no sizable political constituency in either the Republican or Democrat party for America to act as the granter of global order anymore.  This is not isolationist; it is a practical necessity. 

In the years to come as the Pax Americana fades, the result will be civil wars, wars for resources, sharp trade disputes, famine, and even pandemics.  Disorders of one sort or another will become common.  It will be ugly.  This is the world returning to its historical norm.  People trapped in these situations will be desperate to migrate, just like the Syrians of today.  Europe is their destination of choice for many reasons.  But there are limits.  Eventually, even the Europeans will have to man up if their culture and countries are to survive the immigration flood that's just over the horizon.

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