Two (!) polls find black approval of Trump at 34%

One poll could be an outlier, but when two respected polls find the same outcome, it's time to realize that, most likely, something serious is going on.

Rasmussen, whose own daily tracking poll revealed that 34% of black likely voters support President Trump, was initially cautious about interpreting that result, as this response to a tweet by Dineen Borelli shows:

But then another tweet within the hour contained the news that the Emerson poll revealed black support at 34.5%:

Now, expressing support to a pollster is not the same thing as voting, but President Trump and the GOP don't need more than a third of the black vote to win, and win decisively.  If only half of that 34% of blacks vote for Trump, it will devastate the Democrats' candidate.  Democrat victories in this evenly divided nation depend on both high black turnout and high black support.  Hillary Clinton's failure to drive both elements of black support to the levels Barack Obama enjoyed was a major cause of her defeat.

Jim Hoft provides a handy graph revealing the extent of Democrats' dependence on black voters:

This rise in black support for a Republican president is shocking but understandable.  President Trump has done more for the economic welfare of African-Americans than any Democrat president, with his robust economy and limitations on illegal immigration driving up wages at the lower end of the scale.

It's way too soon to count on black support like this next November, but targeting black voters now has to be a top priority.  And for Democrats, this is a wake-up call.  Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg may be leading in early state polls, but neither of them would be particularly attractive candidates in the black community.  Mike Bloomberg may have billions to spend, but he will not get 92% support from blacks.  

Once this polling sinks in, assuming that it is replicated, it should shake up party elders, if not the base, and provide impetus for Joe Biden's candidacy.

If the convention goes to a second ballot, expect the superdelegates to shun all the candidates who are not strongly attractive to blacks. 

One poll could be an outlier, but when two respected polls find the same outcome, it's time to realize that, most likely, something serious is going on.

Rasmussen, whose own daily tracking poll revealed that 34% of black likely voters support President Trump, was initially cautious about interpreting that result, as this response to a tweet by Dineen Borelli shows:

But then another tweet within the hour contained the news that the Emerson poll revealed black support at 34.5%:

Now, expressing support to a pollster is not the same thing as voting, but President Trump and the GOP don't need more than a third of the black vote to win, and win decisively.  If only half of that 34% of blacks vote for Trump, it will devastate the Democrats' candidate.  Democrat victories in this evenly divided nation depend on both high black turnout and high black support.  Hillary Clinton's failure to drive both elements of black support to the levels Barack Obama enjoyed was a major cause of her defeat.

Jim Hoft provides a handy graph revealing the extent of Democrats' dependence on black voters:

This rise in black support for a Republican president is shocking but understandable.  President Trump has done more for the economic welfare of African-Americans than any Democrat president, with his robust economy and limitations on illegal immigration driving up wages at the lower end of the scale.

It's way too soon to count on black support like this next November, but targeting black voters now has to be a top priority.  And for Democrats, this is a wake-up call.  Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg may be leading in early state polls, but neither of them would be particularly attractive candidates in the black community.  Mike Bloomberg may have billions to spend, but he will not get 92% support from blacks.  

Once this polling sinks in, assuming that it is replicated, it should shake up party elders, if not the base, and provide impetus for Joe Biden's candidacy.

If the convention goes to a second ballot, expect the superdelegates to shun all the candidates who are not strongly attractive to blacks.