There is the possibility of a good resolution of the dangerous events transpiring in Venezuela. After an historic call during very difficult days for the citizens of Venezuela, President Trump engaged with President Putin.

There is now a chance to avoid further bloodshed in Venezuela with President Guiado being allowed to build a new government in peace. That can be a significant agenda item when Secretary Pompeo meets with President Putin and his diplomatic counterpart Foreign Minister Lvov this Tuesday, May 14, 2019.

Rebuilding the great Venezuelan oil capacity is a key way ahead. The great saying, “it is not about the money, it all about the money” may successfully drive events in a very good way.

According to latest statistics by the Department of Energy’s, Energy Information Administration (EIA)  the following five countries rank the highest currently in producing oil:

• US
• Saudi Arabia
• Russia
• Canada
• China

Venezuela is now not even in the top 10. Very solid analysis from the EIA factually captures the total economic collapse of Maduro’s leadership in destroying Venezuela’s Oil producing capacity.

Venezuela’s crude oil production has been on a downward trend for two decades, but it has experienced significant decreases over the past two years. Crude oil production in Venezuela decreased from 2.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in January 2016 to 1.6 million b/d in January 2018. A combination of relatively low global crude oil prices and the mismanagement of Venezuela’s oil industry has led to these accelerated declines in production.

The team at EIA pulls no punches in presenting a horrific downward spiral of any hope for the future under the very well-armed gang lead by Maduro.

Several factors indicate that Venezuela’s crude oil production will likely continue to decline. The number of active rigs has fallen from near 70 in the first quarter of 2016 to an average of 43 in the last quarter of 2017. Recent reports indicate that missed payments to oil service companies, a lack of working upgraders, a lack of knowledgeable managers and workers, and declines in oil industry capital expenditures have also contributed to production declines.

Fortunately, President Trump, not wanting to have only a military option in Venezuela, made an historic phone call to President Putin:

America has in President Trump a leader who truly lives "The Art of the Deal" and has just personally engaged with Russia to guide Maduro out and acting president Guaidó fully in with a minimum loss of life. 

The benefit of the executive action by the President is to have made it possible for Secretary of State Pompeo to personal engage with President Putin. This is a wonderful opportunity to successfully have the acting President of Venezuela Juan Guaido fully recognized by President Putin. If that were to occur, it would be much more than just additional global political support, it could trigger a conference to focus on rebuilding Venezuela’s failing oil industry.

The very courageous Juan Guido’s team saw this potential right away:

Venezuela's opposition-controlled Congress named a new transitional board of directors for state-owned oil firm PDVSA on Wednesday in an effort to wrest the OPEC nation's oil revenue from President Nicolas Maduro.

If Russia and China are smart and do not want to cause trouble for trouble’s sake, they will embrace a new government leadership team that can turn around Venezuelan oil production and bring not only secure loan servicing of their legitimate loans, but rescue all Venezuelan citizens from the abject poverty their leaders, who bankrupted their country, have subjected them to. They people of Venezuela deserve better.

The very good news is that in addition to Secretary Pompo, who can represent the President perfectly with the Russians, he is backed up by two cabinet secretaries who make a great team in international oil wheeling and dealing. Secretary Perry most certainly knows his way around oil fields and it might come as a surprise but the Department of Commerce has a major role in oil politics and economics, which brings Secretary Ross to the table.  

In one phone call, President Trump has opened the door for a peaceful transition in Venezuela and he most certainly has an “A-Team’ ready if events go well. He also is a truth talking Commander-In-Chief -- if events in Venezuela take a very ugly turn.

Photo credit: Official portrait