Trump's support from Hispanics has got to be worrying Dems
Careless, lazy, and racist stereotypes about Hispanics could be as big a threat to Democrats' 2020 prospects as their indifference to the plight of the white working class was in 2016. Steve Cortes, who helped lead Trump's Hispanic Advisory Council in 2016, reports on the rise in Hispanic support for Trump at Real Clear Politics:
Get ready for the anti-Trump "resistance" to go truly loco, because new polling data indicates Hispanic support for the president is swelling, a trend that could seal his 2020 re-election victory. ...
So much good news erupted last week for the president with the conclusion of the Mueller inquiry that stunning new polling data was largely glossed over. McLaughlin & Associates revealed that Hispanic approval for Trump in March jumped to 50%. This number matched the January Marist/NPR/PBS survey that shocked cynics with its own 50% approval finding. Even if those polls are too aggressive, February's Morning Consult/Politico poll showed Trump's Hispanic approval vaulting to a still-impressive 45%.
Richard Baehr wisely cautions that these numbers are based on a small sample — Hispanic respondents who constitute a small segment of the total sample of a cross-section of Americans being polled. But the fact that results are fairly consistent across three polls indicates that they may well be correct.
The important thing about these data is what they indicate about the states that could be swung to Trump owing to increased Hispanic support.
Looking state-by-state at the 2020 presidential race, the groundswell of Trump's Hispanic popularity solidifies the president's re-election prospects. A Trump gain to 40% of the Hispanic vote — a very realistic goal at this point — could effectively seal repeat wins in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Winning those states means the Democratic nominee must clean-sweep the 2016 Trump states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Moreover, even that upper Midwest sweep would not be enough if Trump's ascent with Hispanics puts in play Nevada and Colorado, states with large Latino populations that Clinton won by low single digits last election.
The Democrats' assumption — one that many Republicans shared — that all Hispanics favor an open or laxly enforced border is at the root insulting to them. As Cortes points out, they tend to be preyed upon by rogue illegals more than other communities, for one thing. For another, Hispanics tend to have high rates of entrepreneurship and benefit from the expansion of the economy that Trump has brought about.
Graphic credit: Picserver.org.