Why the smart money is on Trump
There are no iron laws in politics, but a few things come close. One is that prosperity elects presidents. If, come election day, voters feel they're better off than they were and think they're likely to get better, incumbent presidents win — even if they had nothing to do with it.
I am firmly convinced the economy will be humming in November of 2020, barring acts of God and acts of war. Trump can't interfere with the Lord, but he can certainly keep us out of war, and he will. And the tax regime he installed, the regulatory relief he's providing, and the international markets he's opening are all powerful stimulants. The Federal Reserve isn't going to rain on this parade, especially not with Stephen Moore joining it. Animal spirits are flowing. There's a lot of rational exuberance. If you ever wanted to go into business, now would be the time to do it.
This all makes a pretty economic pie, and there's a big scoop of ice cream to top it off. It's something Trump had nothing to do with. It's the best economic news of all. Productivity is rising! James Pethokoukis spells it all out in The Week.
This is profoundly good news. It means all the creativity of Silicon Valley is infiltrating American business, and the long-term consequences could be as drastic as the switch from muscle to steam, and from steam to electricity. It's that big.
All this means there's going to be 3% economic growth in 2020, maybe 4%. That means Trump is re-elected.
Dame Fortune smiles, again, on Donald Trump.
Fritz Pettyjohn is a former political consultant.