What happens when the caravan gets to Mexico?
We will know very soon. The latest caravan crossed into Guatemala, according to news reports:
About 500 people, including dozens of children, lined up to show their documents to a first line of unarmed security personnel at the Agua Caliente border crossing Tuesday night. Riot police formed a second line to contain any possible disturbance.
Edilberto Hernandez, a former police officer, stood with his wife and four children to cross into Guatemala. After losing his job, he could find only low-paid construction work, and he decided to travel with his whole family to the United States.
What happens to Edilberto, wife, and kids when they reach Mexico?
According to other news reports and my own conversation with Mexicans in Mexico, there is no appetite to admit more caravans:
Juan Palomina remarked: "Now look, let's see if whacko [Mexican President] Lopez Obrador mobilizes the Marines and keeps these idiots from coming to Mexico. Give them enough to eat, at least."
Some urged the migrants not to be blindly optimistic.
"People of Honduras, all of you who are spinning these grand illusions and getting ready to come on this caravan and in any future others, before you leave your country, please inform yourself about how people who've already come on previous caravans are faring in Tijuana," said Belem Gonzales.
"Mexico is just like your country," Gonzales added. "There are many problems and needs, and you're not going to be much better off than you were in Honduras. Please don't trust these manipulative agitators who are encouraging you to risk everything for nothing."
Luis Mendez was far more unwelcoming. "We do not want caravans of (emojis of rats). Fight conditions in your own country. You are not welcome here."
By Tuesday afternoon, a caravan that started with about 500 people grew to about 2,000, according to a representative from the Honduras National Commission of Human Rights, which travels with the caravan.
I cannot say whether these views represent a majority opinion. I have no scientific survey to link to. Nevertheless, I am hearing the same thing from friends and business associates.
After a few phone calls, I've concluded that Mexicans are sympathetic or understand that the violence is driving people out. At the same time, they don't like for their country to act as "el camino," the highway, to the U.S.
What will President López-Obrador do? He has to block the caravan or face serious political backlash. López-Obrador is already at war with his countrymen over gas shortages. He does not need another headache!
PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.