Many people are misleading the public on the economy

I usually respect what ZeroHedge does, but the following article is, charitably put, misleading.  There are a lot of pretty graphs, but the problem with the headline and article is that they just aren't true.

It seems that a lot of people are trying to talk us into a recession instead of truthfully analyzing the actual data.  They did get it right that net worth is surging. 

Surging Federal Expenditures, Collapsing Tax Revenue...These Are Not Signs Of A Strong Economy

Typically in times of strong economic activity, tax revenues rise and federal government spending is flat or even declines.  Times of economic weakness (usually recognized as recessions) see the opposite.  The chart below shows the year over year change (quarterly basis) in Federal Government expenditures (blue line), federal tax revenue (black line), and household net worth (yellow columns), plus shaded areas are recessions.  The current period of surging federal government expenditures, collapsing tax revenues, amid surging household wealth is "unique". 

Federal revenue is not collapsing.  That is incorrect.

Individual taxes were up 5% the last nine months of the fiscal year after the cuts, even though rates were down across the board.  That indicates and extremely strong economy.  Corporate taxes were the only place revenues were down since the first of the year, but corporate profits have been up strongly, so that loss in revenue should stop soon.

Wages are rising, interest income is rising, dividend income is rising, corporate profits are rising, and sales are rising, so not only are federal revenues rising, but state and local taxes are rising as well.  People are also driving and flying more, which means that excise taxes at all government levels are also higher.  Investor's Business Daily:

Critics of the Trump tax cuts said they would blow a hole in the deficit.  Yet individual income taxes climbed 6% in the just-ended fiscal year 2018, as the economy grew faster and created more jobs than expected.

The Treasury Department reported this week that individual income tax collections for FY 2018 totaled $1.7 trillion.  That's up $14 billion from fiscal 2017, and an all-time high.  And that's despite the fact that individual income tax rates got a significant cut this year as part of President Donald Trump's tax reform plan.

True, the first three months of the fiscal year were before the tax cuts kicked in.  But if you limit the accounting to this calendar year, individual income tax revenues are up by 5% through September.

Other major sources of revenue climbed as well, as the overall economy revived.  FICA tax collections rose by more than 3%.  Excise taxes jumped 13%.

The only category that was down?  Corporate income taxes, which dropped by 31%. 

Then the article essentially makes the statement that government deficits occur because the economy is not strong.  That is another false statement.  Government deficits can be up in either a strong or a weak economy.  They occur because politicians of both parties spend too much.  Currently, Republicans are pushing up defense spending to rebuild, and Democrats are demanding increases in domestic spending just because they want it.

Interest expense is going up rapidly because $20 trillion in debt was run up before Trump took office, whether the economy was strong or weak.  The Federal Reserve kept rates near zero during Obama's eight years, and now it is pushing them up rapidly because the economy is strong, not weak.  The Federal Reserve may cause a recession, and that is pathetic.

If deficits were being caused by a weak economy, we would see increases in food stamps and disability and unemployment costs – and all are going down, not up ,which shows a strong economy, not a weak one.  If journalists and other Democrats actually wanted to reduce the deficit, they would vote to fund the wall, but instead they want to amass power.

There is plenty of evidence of the strong economy:

As of July 7, 42.6 million Americans were receiving SNAP benefits during the current fiscal year, down from 44.2 million in 2016. The 2017 figure is the lowest since 2010, when 40.3 million people were on food stamps. 

Disability Applications Plunge as the Economy Strengthens

The number of Americans seeking Social Security disability benefits is plunging, a startling reversal of a decades-old trend that threatened the program's solvency. It is the latest evidence of a stronger economy pulling people back into the job market or preventing workers from being sidelined in the first place.

The drop is so significant that the agency has revised its estimates of how long the program will continue to be financially secure.  This month, the government announced that the program would not run out of money until 2032, four years later than its previous estimate last year.  Two years ago, the government had warned that the funds might be depleted by 2023.

Unemployment claims are near a fifty-year low.  Continuing claims are down to 1.631 million, down from 2.01 million when Obama left office.

What is even more impressive is that in 1970, the civilian labor force level was around 80 million, and today, it is around 160 million

THE NUMBERS: The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly claims for jobless aid slid by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000. The less-volatile four-week average rose by 1,000 to 252,500. Overall, 2.01 million Americans are collecting unemployment checks, down 10 percent from a year ago. 

The GDP is growing faster than any time since 2005, wages are growing faster, there are more job openings than people looking for jobs, manufacturing jobs are rising rapidly, full-time jobs are rising, productivity is up, oil production is at a record high, consumer and business confidence is very high, unemployment rates are at 50-year lows and are at or near record lows, and corporate profits are up, so where the heck does somebody come up with the idea that the U.S. economy is not strong?

It seems that most journalists and other Democrats inexplicably want to go back to Obama's high taxes and massive regulatory policies that gave the U.S the slowest economic recovery in seventy years, where the poor, the middle class, and minorities had fewer opportunities to move up the economic ladder.

Chuck Schumer and others are focused like a laser beam on climate change.  I would ask Schumer and others which products and projects can be completed without using products derived from petroleum or where the production or construction can be done without the benefit of petroleum-based products.  It seems that Democrats like what is going on in France, where they punish the poor and middle class in order to pretend they can control the climate.

Democrats want to move toward a government-run health care system destroying the private sector and freedom of choice.

One of the most destructive policies the Democrats proposed is a $15 national minimum wage.  They might as well just close down small and medium-sized towns where costs are lower.  Somehow, Democrats don't seem to understand that one size doesn't fit all.

Everything I see that Democrats propose is based on government getting bigger and more powerful.  Even though Democrats refer to themselves as progressives, they move everything toward socialism, and socialism is oppressive and regressive, not progressive.

Trump, on the other hand, wants people of all races, education levels, and sexual orientations to be able to have more opportunities to move up the economic ladder.  Those policies are truly forward-thinking or progressive.

I usually respect what ZeroHedge does, but the following article is, charitably put, misleading.  There are a lot of pretty graphs, but the problem with the headline and article is that they just aren't true.

It seems that a lot of people are trying to talk us into a recession instead of truthfully analyzing the actual data.  They did get it right that net worth is surging. 

Surging Federal Expenditures, Collapsing Tax Revenue...These Are Not Signs Of A Strong Economy

Typically in times of strong economic activity, tax revenues rise and federal government spending is flat or even declines.  Times of economic weakness (usually recognized as recessions) see the opposite.  The chart below shows the year over year change (quarterly basis) in Federal Government expenditures (blue line), federal tax revenue (black line), and household net worth (yellow columns), plus shaded areas are recessions.  The current period of surging federal government expenditures, collapsing tax revenues, amid surging household wealth is "unique". 

Federal revenue is not collapsing.  That is incorrect.

Individual taxes were up 5% the last nine months of the fiscal year after the cuts, even though rates were down across the board.  That indicates and extremely strong economy.  Corporate taxes were the only place revenues were down since the first of the year, but corporate profits have been up strongly, so that loss in revenue should stop soon.

Wages are rising, interest income is rising, dividend income is rising, corporate profits are rising, and sales are rising, so not only are federal revenues rising, but state and local taxes are rising as well.  People are also driving and flying more, which means that excise taxes at all government levels are also higher.  Investor's Business Daily:

Critics of the Trump tax cuts said they would blow a hole in the deficit.  Yet individual income taxes climbed 6% in the just-ended fiscal year 2018, as the economy grew faster and created more jobs than expected.

The Treasury Department reported this week that individual income tax collections for FY 2018 totaled $1.7 trillion.  That's up $14 billion from fiscal 2017, and an all-time high.  And that's despite the fact that individual income tax rates got a significant cut this year as part of President Donald Trump's tax reform plan.

True, the first three months of the fiscal year were before the tax cuts kicked in.  But if you limit the accounting to this calendar year, individual income tax revenues are up by 5% through September.

Other major sources of revenue climbed as well, as the overall economy revived.  FICA tax collections rose by more than 3%.  Excise taxes jumped 13%.

The only category that was down?  Corporate income taxes, which dropped by 31%. 

Then the article essentially makes the statement that government deficits occur because the economy is not strong.  That is another false statement.  Government deficits can be up in either a strong or a weak economy.  They occur because politicians of both parties spend too much.  Currently, Republicans are pushing up defense spending to rebuild, and Democrats are demanding increases in domestic spending just because they want it.

Interest expense is going up rapidly because $20 trillion in debt was run up before Trump took office, whether the economy was strong or weak.  The Federal Reserve kept rates near zero during Obama's eight years, and now it is pushing them up rapidly because the economy is strong, not weak.  The Federal Reserve may cause a recession, and that is pathetic.

If deficits were being caused by a weak economy, we would see increases in food stamps and disability and unemployment costs – and all are going down, not up ,which shows a strong economy, not a weak one.  If journalists and other Democrats actually wanted to reduce the deficit, they would vote to fund the wall, but instead they want to amass power.

There is plenty of evidence of the strong economy:

As of July 7, 42.6 million Americans were receiving SNAP benefits during the current fiscal year, down from 44.2 million in 2016. The 2017 figure is the lowest since 2010, when 40.3 million people were on food stamps. 

Disability Applications Plunge as the Economy Strengthens

The number of Americans seeking Social Security disability benefits is plunging, a startling reversal of a decades-old trend that threatened the program's solvency. It is the latest evidence of a stronger economy pulling people back into the job market or preventing workers from being sidelined in the first place.

The drop is so significant that the agency has revised its estimates of how long the program will continue to be financially secure.  This month, the government announced that the program would not run out of money until 2032, four years later than its previous estimate last year.  Two years ago, the government had warned that the funds might be depleted by 2023.

Unemployment claims are near a fifty-year low.  Continuing claims are down to 1.631 million, down from 2.01 million when Obama left office.

What is even more impressive is that in 1970, the civilian labor force level was around 80 million, and today, it is around 160 million

THE NUMBERS: The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly claims for jobless aid slid by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000. The less-volatile four-week average rose by 1,000 to 252,500. Overall, 2.01 million Americans are collecting unemployment checks, down 10 percent from a year ago. 

The GDP is growing faster than any time since 2005, wages are growing faster, there are more job openings than people looking for jobs, manufacturing jobs are rising rapidly, full-time jobs are rising, productivity is up, oil production is at a record high, consumer and business confidence is very high, unemployment rates are at 50-year lows and are at or near record lows, and corporate profits are up, so where the heck does somebody come up with the idea that the U.S. economy is not strong?

It seems that most journalists and other Democrats inexplicably want to go back to Obama's high taxes and massive regulatory policies that gave the U.S the slowest economic recovery in seventy years, where the poor, the middle class, and minorities had fewer opportunities to move up the economic ladder.

Chuck Schumer and others are focused like a laser beam on climate change.  I would ask Schumer and others which products and projects can be completed without using products derived from petroleum or where the production or construction can be done without the benefit of petroleum-based products.  It seems that Democrats like what is going on in France, where they punish the poor and middle class in order to pretend they can control the climate.

Democrats want to move toward a government-run health care system destroying the private sector and freedom of choice.

One of the most destructive policies the Democrats proposed is a $15 national minimum wage.  They might as well just close down small and medium-sized towns where costs are lower.  Somehow, Democrats don't seem to understand that one size doesn't fit all.

Everything I see that Democrats propose is based on government getting bigger and more powerful.  Even though Democrats refer to themselves as progressives, they move everything toward socialism, and socialism is oppressive and regressive, not progressive.

Trump, on the other hand, wants people of all races, education levels, and sexual orientations to be able to have more opportunities to move up the economic ladder.  Those policies are truly forward-thinking or progressive.