Tuesday is up to you

On October 20, 2016, John Cassidy, in The New Yorker, confidently declared about Donald Trump, "He's going out as a sore loser, raving at the world, threatening to unleash chaos."  Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC, said on August 15, 2016, "That's a guy who knows he is going to lose.  That's a guy who knows he is going to lose.  You start talking that way and, again, I don't know that he's ever wanted to win.  It's sad.  It's sad and pathetic what's going on out there."  Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight fame, announced on August 11, 2015, "Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It's not even clear that he's trying to do so."

Clearly, these pundits and prognosticators were wrong.  Days after the election, disbelief and shock lingered with the Washington and media elites.  The New York Times reported the stunned response of reporters on election night. 

"Nobody predicted this," said Chris Matthews on MSNBC.

"I don't know one poll that suggested that Donald Trump was going to have this kind of night," said Jake Tapper on CNN.

What does this mean for today?  Conventional wisdom says the Republicans might still hold the Senate, but the House is sure to go to the Democrats.  Nate Silver declares that the Democrats have an 85.4% chance of taking the House.  NPR's Jessica Taylor wrote on November 2, 2018, "Democrats appear confident they'll take back the House majority next Tuesday – a fact top Republican strategists all but concede privately less than a week before Election Day."  Nancy Pelosi confidently told Stephen Colbert, "Up until today I would have said if the election was held today we would win.  Now I'm saying we will win."  The Democrats and their media allies are projecting confidence heading into Tuesday.  The question is whether it is really confidence or bravado. 

Regardless of what pollsters, pundits, and professionals may say, the fact is that no one knows what will happen on Tuesday.  Will there be a blue wave?  Is it going to be a split decision?  Is it possible a red wave will form?  I don't know, nor does anyone else.  There are some interesting aspects of this election cycle, though, that are going underreported.

The economic and jobs report that came out on November 2 was remarkable.  Fox Business News's Network's Blake Burman notes, "U.S. employers added a better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October.  The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the lowest rate in nearly 50 years.  Average hourly earnings meanwhile rose by five cents to $27.30, or 3.1 percent year-over-year, the highest it's been since the Great Recession."  Regular people have more jobs, more money and more economic opportunity now than they have in a long time.  Will they want to vote against the party that brought about these benefits? 

Another undiscussed component is the sheer number of people who are attending President Trump's rallies compared to the relatively small crowds coming to the Democrat rallies.  Adele Malpas of Real Clear Politics wrote on October 25, 2018, "A quick comparison reveals Trump's appearances have generated much larger crowds than those of prominent Democrats.  In Nevada last weekend, the president hit the campaign trail with a rally in Elko County, which drew 8,500.  Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden campaigned before an audience of about 500.  Former President Obama had only 2,000 people attended his event in the University of Nevada-Las Vegas's 18,000-seat arena. Trump held a rally in Houston where 100,000 people requested tickets even though the Toyota Center there can accommodate just 18,000."

Another interesting observation is the fact that Republicans are leading in early voting in many states.  Maxim Lott on Fox News quotes Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor at Harvard.  "This is a good indicator of early enthusiasm.  Certainly, this doesn't look like a Democratic surge in these states."

A final thought is about cable news ratings.  The October ratings numbers came in this week.  Fox News came in first, which isn't unusual.  What was interesting was that they had a viewership larger than that of MSNBC and CNN combined.  The top five cable news shows for the month of October were all on Fox.  What does this mean?  I don't think it guarantees a red wave, but it does seem to indicate a lot of interest, from regular people on the right, in what's going on.

The bottom line is this: no one knows what Tuesday will bring.  Don't let the opinions of the experts discourage you.  What happens on Tuesday is up to you.  Vote.

Bill Thomas has been in local church ministry for over twenty-five years.  He is also an adjunct instructor in history, the Bible, and education for two different Christian colleges.  He's authored two novellas, From the Ashes and The Sixty-first Minute, published by White Feather Press of Michigan, and three Bible studies, "Surrounded by Grace," "The Critical Questions and More," and "The Road to Victory," published by CSS Publishing of Ohio.

On October 20, 2016, John Cassidy, in The New Yorker, confidently declared about Donald Trump, "He's going out as a sore loser, raving at the world, threatening to unleash chaos."  Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC, said on August 15, 2016, "That's a guy who knows he is going to lose.  That's a guy who knows he is going to lose.  You start talking that way and, again, I don't know that he's ever wanted to win.  It's sad.  It's sad and pathetic what's going on out there."  Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight fame, announced on August 11, 2015, "Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It's not even clear that he's trying to do so."

Clearly, these pundits and prognosticators were wrong.  Days after the election, disbelief and shock lingered with the Washington and media elites.  The New York Times reported the stunned response of reporters on election night. 

"Nobody predicted this," said Chris Matthews on MSNBC.

"I don't know one poll that suggested that Donald Trump was going to have this kind of night," said Jake Tapper on CNN.

What does this mean for today?  Conventional wisdom says the Republicans might still hold the Senate, but the House is sure to go to the Democrats.  Nate Silver declares that the Democrats have an 85.4% chance of taking the House.  NPR's Jessica Taylor wrote on November 2, 2018, "Democrats appear confident they'll take back the House majority next Tuesday – a fact top Republican strategists all but concede privately less than a week before Election Day."  Nancy Pelosi confidently told Stephen Colbert, "Up until today I would have said if the election was held today we would win.  Now I'm saying we will win."  The Democrats and their media allies are projecting confidence heading into Tuesday.  The question is whether it is really confidence or bravado. 

Regardless of what pollsters, pundits, and professionals may say, the fact is that no one knows what will happen on Tuesday.  Will there be a blue wave?  Is it going to be a split decision?  Is it possible a red wave will form?  I don't know, nor does anyone else.  There are some interesting aspects of this election cycle, though, that are going underreported.

The economic and jobs report that came out on November 2 was remarkable.  Fox Business News's Network's Blake Burman notes, "U.S. employers added a better-than-expected 250,000 jobs in October.  The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the lowest rate in nearly 50 years.  Average hourly earnings meanwhile rose by five cents to $27.30, or 3.1 percent year-over-year, the highest it's been since the Great Recession."  Regular people have more jobs, more money and more economic opportunity now than they have in a long time.  Will they want to vote against the party that brought about these benefits? 

Another undiscussed component is the sheer number of people who are attending President Trump's rallies compared to the relatively small crowds coming to the Democrat rallies.  Adele Malpas of Real Clear Politics wrote on October 25, 2018, "A quick comparison reveals Trump's appearances have generated much larger crowds than those of prominent Democrats.  In Nevada last weekend, the president hit the campaign trail with a rally in Elko County, which drew 8,500.  Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden campaigned before an audience of about 500.  Former President Obama had only 2,000 people attended his event in the University of Nevada-Las Vegas's 18,000-seat arena. Trump held a rally in Houston where 100,000 people requested tickets even though the Toyota Center there can accommodate just 18,000."

Another interesting observation is the fact that Republicans are leading in early voting in many states.  Maxim Lott on Fox News quotes Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor at Harvard.  "This is a good indicator of early enthusiasm.  Certainly, this doesn't look like a Democratic surge in these states."

A final thought is about cable news ratings.  The October ratings numbers came in this week.  Fox News came in first, which isn't unusual.  What was interesting was that they had a viewership larger than that of MSNBC and CNN combined.  The top five cable news shows for the month of October were all on Fox.  What does this mean?  I don't think it guarantees a red wave, but it does seem to indicate a lot of interest, from regular people on the right, in what's going on.

The bottom line is this: no one knows what Tuesday will bring.  Don't let the opinions of the experts discourage you.  What happens on Tuesday is up to you.  Vote.

Bill Thomas has been in local church ministry for over twenty-five years.  He is also an adjunct instructor in history, the Bible, and education for two different Christian colleges.  He's authored two novellas, From the Ashes and The Sixty-first Minute, published by White Feather Press of Michigan, and three Bible studies, "Surrounded by Grace," "The Critical Questions and More," and "The Road to Victory," published by CSS Publishing of Ohio.