Not so blue after all

Not long ago, the 2018 midterms happened, and everyone is calling it a "split decision."  The Democrats won the House, and the GOP kept and increased its hold on the Senate.

Did the blue wave happen?  Did the GOP defeat all of the red-state Democrats?  The answer is no in both cases.

According to Sean Trende, both sides got something, but the Democrats got less than they think:

Under the metric I set up before the election, the overall index had to shift about 40 points to be considered a wave election rather than simply a good-to-very-good Democratic year.

Right now, votes are still being counted, but it looks as though the index shifted a little more than half that. 

Overall, the outcome falls in between what we would consider "good years" for Democrats, 1978 and 1970, and is in the ballpark of other "good years" such as 2014, 1950 and 2006. 

In other words, this is no 2010 or 1994 for Democrats, or when one party almost blew the incumbent president off the stage.

It certainly was not 2002, or when incumbent President Bush picked up the U.S. Senate in his first midterm.

In my view, the GOP is in a slightly stronger position than the Democrats after the 2018 midterms.

Over at the House, I can't wait to see how they get anything done or how the dinosaurs get along with the freshmen.  My guess is that most smart Democrats would not want to see Representative Maxine Waters chairing a serious committee. At the same time, who has the courage to tell her to go into hiding?

On impeachment, can the serious Democrats stop the pent up demand to "get Trump"?  I don't think so.

On health care, can they agree on anything?  Don't count on it.

Add to this that most of these freshmen won competitive elections financed by lots of cash from outside their districts.

In 2020, they won't have the cash and will have to defend their inability to get anything done.  Also, Mr. Bloomberg will probably be spending money on his presidential efforts, and other liberal billionaires will be furious that nothing got done, from impeaching Trump to climate change regulations.  Don't be shocked if a liberal third party comes out of the frustration with this Democrat majority.

Over at the U.S. Senate, the GOP will work with President Trump and force Democrats to take votes rather than give speeches.  My early guess is that President Trump will pick up off a bunch of Democrats who want to get re-elected.

To be fair, the GOP has to figure out a way to increase minority support.  You can't allow the Democrats to continue with their demagogic positions on immigration, DACA, or the caravan. 

For example, 51% of Hispanics supported troops on the border to stop the caravan.  Why weren't Republicans talking about that?

Why do we allow conservative Hispanics to vote for people who support partial abortion, like Beto O'Rourke?

So here we are.

Did a lot change on election day?  A little bit, but not enough to call it a political alignment we will talk about in 20 years!

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

Not long ago, the 2018 midterms happened, and everyone is calling it a "split decision."  The Democrats won the House, and the GOP kept and increased its hold on the Senate.

Did the blue wave happen?  Did the GOP defeat all of the red-state Democrats?  The answer is no in both cases.

According to Sean Trende, both sides got something, but the Democrats got less than they think:

Under the metric I set up before the election, the overall index had to shift about 40 points to be considered a wave election rather than simply a good-to-very-good Democratic year.

Right now, votes are still being counted, but it looks as though the index shifted a little more than half that. 

Overall, the outcome falls in between what we would consider "good years" for Democrats, 1978 and 1970, and is in the ballpark of other "good years" such as 2014, 1950 and 2006. 

In other words, this is no 2010 or 1994 for Democrats, or when one party almost blew the incumbent president off the stage.

It certainly was not 2002, or when incumbent President Bush picked up the U.S. Senate in his first midterm.

In my view, the GOP is in a slightly stronger position than the Democrats after the 2018 midterms.

Over at the House, I can't wait to see how they get anything done or how the dinosaurs get along with the freshmen.  My guess is that most smart Democrats would not want to see Representative Maxine Waters chairing a serious committee. At the same time, who has the courage to tell her to go into hiding?

On impeachment, can the serious Democrats stop the pent up demand to "get Trump"?  I don't think so.

On health care, can they agree on anything?  Don't count on it.

Add to this that most of these freshmen won competitive elections financed by lots of cash from outside their districts.

In 2020, they won't have the cash and will have to defend their inability to get anything done.  Also, Mr. Bloomberg will probably be spending money on his presidential efforts, and other liberal billionaires will be furious that nothing got done, from impeaching Trump to climate change regulations.  Don't be shocked if a liberal third party comes out of the frustration with this Democrat majority.

Over at the U.S. Senate, the GOP will work with President Trump and force Democrats to take votes rather than give speeches.  My early guess is that President Trump will pick up off a bunch of Democrats who want to get re-elected.

To be fair, the GOP has to figure out a way to increase minority support.  You can't allow the Democrats to continue with their demagogic positions on immigration, DACA, or the caravan. 

For example, 51% of Hispanics supported troops on the border to stop the caravan.  Why weren't Republicans talking about that?

Why do we allow conservative Hispanics to vote for people who support partial abortion, like Beto O'Rourke?

So here we are.

Did a lot change on election day?  A little bit, but not enough to call it a political alignment we will talk about in 20 years!

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.