With two weeks to go, GOP has more cash to spend than Dems
If Republicans are able to hold on to the House after the midterm elections, they might point to the significant cash advantage they hold over the Democrats.
Fundraising doesn't necessarily win you an election, but a lack of it might lose one. The bottom line is that it is better to have money to spend than not, and by that yardstick, Republicans are in good shape.
The three national Republican Party committees had outraised their Democratic counterparts $531 million to $471 million since the beginning of 2017, according to the disclosures with the Federal Election Commission.
Super PAC fund-raising was basically a draw, with the top 10 Democratic super PACs outraising their Republican counterparts $335.3 million to $335.1 million – washing away concern among Democrats that they could be swamped by a late tidal wave of cash from wealthy Republicans.
Overall, Democrats have outraised Republicans $1.29 billion to $1.23 billion, counting their respective top super PACs, national party committees and campaigns in targeted congressional races, according to an analysis of election commission filings covering the beginning of 2017 through the end of last month.
The analysis does not capture all of the money at play in the final weeks, including spending by nonprofit groups that do not disclose their donors, as well as seven- and even eight-figure donations that major donors or their advisers say have been – or are expected to be – given to super PACs after the period reflected in Saturday's filings.
It isn't just the amount of cash raised that's important. How much do respective parties and candidates have in cash on hand to spend these last couple of weeks before the election? The GOP advantage may be decisive in keeping control of the House:
The Republican cash advantage could allow the party to bolster financially strapped campaigns that still have a chance, and fund an emerging strategy of nationalizing the race around President Trump and culturally divisive issues like immigration and the confirmation of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh. Republicans are issuing ominous warnings about liberal "mobs" deploying dirty tactics to help Democrats smear conservatives and push the country toward socialism.
At this point, the voting public is probably sick of seeing ads on TV. The saturation level is only going to increase the closer we get to election day. But even if voters say they tune out the ads, there are still persuadable and undecided voters who might be swayed. It is these last few voters who might make the difference in several congressional districts where Republicans are fighting to maintain their control of the House.