A secret deal between the U.S. and Turkey may result in the release of North Carolina pastor Andrew Brunson, sources are telling several media outlets.  In return for the pastor's release, the U.S. has apparently agreed to lift some of the sanctions imposed on Ankara following Brunson's detention.

Brunson is an evangelical pastor from Black Mountain, North Carolina who has spent more than two decades in Turkey.  He was arrested in 2016 and charged with aiding terrorists, a charge he and U.S. officials deny.

Brunson was caught up in President Erdoğan's crackdown following a failed coup attempt.  U.S. officials have been working on his release since his arrest.

NBCNews:

Brunson's imprisonment has increasingly strained the relationship between the Trump administration and Turkey, a NATO ally.  Brunson's release could be more likely given that his court hearing comes at a time when Turkey is seeking U.S. support for challenging Saudi Arabia in response to the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Brunson's release "could reset Trump and Erdogan's relationship," Cagaptay said.

Administration officials have said the release of Brunson, as well as other Americans, would be a significant step toward mending ties between the U.S. and Turkey. ...

Vice President Mike Pence has been a leading critic of Brunson's detainment and advocate for his immediate release.

Trump announced economic sanctions against Turkey in August after talks with Ankara failed to result in Brunson's release.  He also has publicly called for Erdogan to release Brunson.

"A total disgrace that Turkey will not release a respected U.S. Pastor, Andrew Brunson, from prison. He has been held hostage far too long," Trump wrote on Twitter in July.  "He has done nothing wrong, and his family needs him!"

The timing of the release may be significant.  Turkey's relations with Saudi Arabia have hit a new low following the disappearance and presumed murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.  They haven't been very good with the U.S., either, even though Turkey is a nominal Western ally and member of NATO. 

Saudi Arabia is in the way of Turkey's hegemonic designs on the region.  Erdoğan hopes to improve relations with the U.S. and drive a wedge between Washington and Riyadh, giving the Turkish president more leverage on other Gulf States in the region.  Trump has made an effort to dramatically improve our relations with the kingdom, and U.S. backing for the Saudi war against Iran and Iran's Houthi rebel proxies in Yemen has been vital.

Indeed, the Khashoggi crisis has roiled U.S. politics with talk in Congress of delaying or canceling some huge arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

Wall Street Journal:

Meanwhile, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) told reporters Thursday that a finding that the Saudis are responsible for Mr. Khashoggi's killing would change the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

"If it turns out to be what we all think it is today, there will have to be significant sanctions placed at the highest levels," Mr. Corker said.  The White House, he said, "will be under immense pressure – immense pressure – if it's determined that Saudi Arabia was involved to sanction, very severely, the people who've been involved in this."

Some Republicans suggested they would be open to blocking arms sales, even though Mr. Trump has indicated that could cost American jobs.

"Arms sales are certainly going to be, I think, a huge concern if there is [Saudi] responsibility that is irrefutable," Sen. Cory Gardner (R., Colo.) said Thursday.

Sen. Robert Menendez (D., N.J.), the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, noted that he had blocked an earlier arms sale in June until the administration has answered his questions about how the weapons would be used in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is backing a civil war against Houthi insurgents.

Mr. Menendez said the decision this week by a bipartisan group of lawmakers to trigger an sanctions determination investigation was the first time such an action had been pursued by the top two lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

"That's a pretty powerful statement and I expect that it will be a serious investigation because all the signs lead to some serious concerns about what happened to Mr. Khashoggi," he said.

Congress is right to be concerned, but making a political issue of the journalist's disappearance, as some Democrats are trying to do, isn't helpful.  In fact, Saudi Arabia is, next to Israel, our strongest and most reliable ally in the Middle East.  The Saudis are confronting our enemy Iran in Yemen, preventing Tehran from establishing another friendly government in the region.  Their oil is not as important as it was a decade ago, but they are still a major player in the industry and have a big role in keeping a lid on prices and an adequate supply for our Western allies.

The Saudi relationship with the U.S. is more vital to our national security than our relationship with an increasingly oppressive and radical Islamist Turkey.  It's not surprising that Erdoğan would try to drive a wedge between us, but the Saudis see the Khashoggi issue as a purely internal matter and no one else's business. 

Trump may respect that position but find it difficult to resist calls from Congress for sanctions if objective evidence emerges that the Saudis were involved in Khashoggi's disappearance or death.