New Gallup poll reveals surge in voter enthusiasm

Gallup has some bad news for Democrats counting on a "blue wave."  We already know that Trump-haters are fired up, and predictions of a "blue wave" rest on the assumption that Democrats, more than Republicans, will be motivated to vote next month.  But a poll from Gallup, conducted between September 17 and 23, four days before the polarizing testimony of Christine Blasey Ford, reveals that Republicans are just about as fired up as Democrats.

Today's heightened enthusiasm is the result of high levels of enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats – possibly reflecting both party groups' enhanced recognition of the importance of the election in light of the high-stakes Kavanaugh hearings.

Sixty-one percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners and 58% of Republicans and Republican leaners say they are more enthusiastic about voting in November compared to prior elections.  These levels roughly match Republicans' record-high enthusiasm in 2010, Barack Obama's first midterm, when the GOP won a whopping 63 seats.  But this is the first time in Gallup's trend since 1994 that both parties have expressed high enthusiasm.

There is a lot of news ahead for us in the five weeks until the midterm elections.  Judge Kavanaugh is likely to get a vote on confirmation, and the claims against him will be vetted by the FBI.  Declassification of the FISA warrants and text messages will likely result in public knowledge of the conspiracy against Trump.

If GOP and Democrat voters were within the margin of error in their equal enthusiasm for voting, the prospects of a blue wave are receding.  And always keep in mind that Democrat voters are concentrated in big cities, while GOP voters are ore spread out.  Winning big-city congressional districts by even wider margins does not lead to more districts turning blue.

Gallup has some bad news for Democrats counting on a "blue wave."  We already know that Trump-haters are fired up, and predictions of a "blue wave" rest on the assumption that Democrats, more than Republicans, will be motivated to vote next month.  But a poll from Gallup, conducted between September 17 and 23, four days before the polarizing testimony of Christine Blasey Ford, reveals that Republicans are just about as fired up as Democrats.

Today's heightened enthusiasm is the result of high levels of enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats – possibly reflecting both party groups' enhanced recognition of the importance of the election in light of the high-stakes Kavanaugh hearings.

Sixty-one percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners and 58% of Republicans and Republican leaners say they are more enthusiastic about voting in November compared to prior elections.  These levels roughly match Republicans' record-high enthusiasm in 2010, Barack Obama's first midterm, when the GOP won a whopping 63 seats.  But this is the first time in Gallup's trend since 1994 that both parties have expressed high enthusiasm.

There is a lot of news ahead for us in the five weeks until the midterm elections.  Judge Kavanaugh is likely to get a vote on confirmation, and the claims against him will be vetted by the FBI.  Declassification of the FISA warrants and text messages will likely result in public knowledge of the conspiracy against Trump.

If GOP and Democrat voters were within the margin of error in their equal enthusiasm for voting, the prospects of a blue wave are receding.  And always keep in mind that Democrat voters are concentrated in big cities, while GOP voters are ore spread out.  Winning big-city congressional districts by even wider margins does not lead to more districts turning blue.